TraderS | 缺德道人|12月 28, 2025 02:22
The last time silver skyrocketed was in January 1980, when the Hunt brothers pushed COMEX silver to $49.45/oz. Adjusting for U.S. CPI inflation from 1980 to 2025, the multiplier is about 4.3–4.6x, meaning the real historical high would be around $215–230.
If we calculate using the gold-to-silver ratio, in the modern fiat currency system, the average is around 60–70, but in extreme bull markets, it can drop to 30–40.
In the Earth's crust, the silver-to-gold reserve ratio is approximately 17:1 to 19:1.
Historically, it was long fixed by authorities at 15:1 or 16:1 (a ratio set by Newton).
In the modern fiat currency era, the typical fluctuation range is 50–80. During the 2020 liquidity crisis, it briefly spiked to over 120 (indicating silver was severely undervalued). In the 2011 silver bull market, it compressed to around 32.
So, based on the current gold price of $4,500, if we assume an extreme financial bull market with a gold-to-silver ratio of 30, silver would be around $150, which is still some distance from the inflation-adjusted historical high. Only if the ratio reaches the shadow currency level of 15 (gold-to-silver), meaning silver at $300, would it match the panic levels of the Hunt brothers in the 1980s.
However, precious metals are also part of the commodities market, and bull and bear cycles typically last 5–10 years. This gold cycle has already been running for two years, while silver has only just started its half-year run. Gold will continue to play a backup role during international monetary transitions, and this will likely be calculated in 10-year increments.
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