Maintaining the judgment of the recent turning point on Thursday night, although the turning point of the US stock market appeared on the same day, the big pie still experienced a roller coaster ride on Thursday night, but it did not affect the medium-term trend. The controversy surrounding the CPI in November on Thursday night is that the disputed data is not bad, but rather belongs to the category of "falling back is not a problem, falling back so much is a bit problematic". Looking at it from a different perspective, if CPI is slightly lower than expected at 2.9 instead of 2.6%, the controversy may not be as great. The most controversial issue is housing inflation, which is filled in with the method of "carrying forward previous data". In fact, BLS has three methods: Cell relative interpolation, Class mean interpolation, and Carry Forward. You can check them out for yourself. The Carry Forward method has a significant impact on housing inflation, but has little effect on inflation statistics for goods and services. And before the housing inflation, here is https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/20016727004866652083? S=46&t=k6rimWSEbo2D2TXolYcM-A, citing third-party data, shows that US housing did weaken in November. Of course, the risk is that applying Carry Forward to lower housing inflation in November will make the base of December housing inflation announced later very low, which is a potential risk in mid January. However, in the coming weeks, the market still tends to rely on current data On Tuesday, I talked to a friend about a logic: the impact of Japan's interest rate hike is not as significant as the non farm unemployment rate and inflation, and it is a cumulative effect. If the non farm unemployment rate and inflation are favorable, Japan's interest rate hike will not have any impact. The non farm unemployment rate and inflation are not good, and Japan's interest rate hike will have some impact. Of course, I have also predicted that the impact of Japan's interest rate hike will not be significant. Here is https://(x.com)/qinbank/status/2001860516642537721? We have talked about s=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A. So the non farm weakness, rising unemployment rate, and lower than expected inflation have all boosted the market. In addition, yesterday Japan's interest rate hike was smoothly passed, and the official launch of the US AI Genesis plan has driven the market to strengthen. The huge trading volume in the US stock market also has directional significance, and the short-term turning point has officially formed. Next week, the US stock market may be smoother, while the big pie may be more challenging. If you want enough certainty, you can observe before and after Christmas before making any moves.