Jim Bianco
Jim Bianco|12月 10, 2025 01:25
Layoffs have been a central talking point in the economy and the Labor Market due to the Challenger Gray and Christmas layoff reports in October and November. These were ANNOUNCED layoffs that will occur in the future. Some of them could be through attrition (when employees quit and the job isn't filled). Also, because a company announces layoffs does not mean they will follow through on the entire amount. Often it is less than the announced amount. How about ACTUAL layoffs? The JOLTS report (Job Openings Labor Turnover) measures this. As this chart shows, October layoffs ("discharges") were NOT elevated, again, the same month the Challenger said was the highest October in 20 years. And the current levels of layoffs are still well below the pre-COVID average and range (black line/shaded area) when the labor market was thought to be very healthy. The Fed is cutting rates out of fears of labor market weakness. But the Fed's job is also inflation, now referred to as affordability. The public is screaming mad about affordability. So, how is the Fed helping with affordability by stimulating the economy with cheaper money, especially if they are misreading the labor market?(Jim Bianco)
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