This grid shows the growth rate of 🔵Nonfarm Payrolls in every Fed tightening episode since the middle of last century (ex 1994, 2020), relative to when hikes began. What I think is so fascinating, and arguably the most important *economic* dynamic of this cycle, is how 🔴job growth has not had the typical acute drop into negative territory that usually happens ~2.25 years after rate hikes begin, marking the start of a recession (hard landing). NFP also has not bottomed and bounced higher into stronger growth the way it did in 🟣1966-67 (soft landing), which is perhaps one of the most similar cycles to this one in terms of profile. No, this time labor hasn't done either one. It has simply dragged lower and lower, hovering along the zero bound like Luke's landspeeder on Tattooine, posting THE LOWEST positive job growth figures ever seen in any US expansion on record. Not bouncing, not breaking. Just a molasses-slow grind into the ground that keeps recessionistas' bellies full of worry but doesn't trigger a full blown economic crisis. It is unclear what will shake this dynamic loose, or how long it can endure. But for my money is the most confounding economic story of this entire post-pandemic era so far.(𝐓𝐗𝐌𝐂)