
徐冲浪|Nov 25, 2025 05:12
The Internet foam was in 2000, because there were more than 500 IPO companies without any actual business support in one year.
AI experienced the prosperity of computer vision in 17-18 years, and later discovered that computer vision could only do facial recognition and object recognition for security. There were not many breakthroughs, so the four AI dragons died as CEOs, and those who couldn't go public couldn't go public. In fact, during those two years, only China was promoting AI, and NLP was at the level of jieba word segmentation. So that round ended.
The emergence of big models in recent years has changed the business models of the past. The world's largest market is the advertising market, and there are only a few advertising models available, CPM、CPC、CPA、CPS, Everything is based on conversion.
But big models are different. Companies holding big models can sell tokens to all other companies, which is a subscription model with no advertising but actual dependence on the effect (as can be seen from the revenue of OpenAI and Claude). If there is no practical effect, users will be completely lost within three months. This has been going on for several years now, and all commercial companies are actively using AI to improve efficiency. This is fundamentally different from 2000 when there was no actual business and only a. com domain could be listed. Tokens are getting cheaper, but the consumption will continue to increase. This is a process of popularization, similar to the popularity of smartphones in 2012, so we will see Mag 7 laying off employees and building data centers. C mining enterprises are transforming into data centers, and the semiconductor industry is crazily launching new products.
I often say that in this market, as long as you don't learn, your cognition will not keep up. Hong Hao saw 70000 yuan in BTC a few days ago, and KOL saw 500 yuan in CRCL a few years later. Everything has logic, and we bet on a 25bp interest rate cut instead.
But we know we're gambling because supporting a low probability event is essentially gambling, and then Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve, Williams, spoke up, and the 25bp probability went from 36% to 70%, 80%, seeing 70000 people become bulls.
Revere the market, keep learning, it has nothing to do with how much money you have now. You will eventually choose the path that suits you and keep making money.