On the basis of the macro environment, we are actually still in the state of the late 19th and early 20th of the year, welcoming the arrival of a loose trend. This is also why I say next year is not the year 2022. First, let's talk about the background. At the beginning of 2019, there was a pause in interest rate hikes (with the highest rate only reaching 2.5), followed by a bull market, a mid year money shortage, and a suspension of balance sheet tightening in September. Then in early 2020, the epidemic broke out, and everyone knew about it. 312, and then the Federal Reserve cut interest rates significantly to save the economy, QE， The largest amount of water released since 2008. However, the interest rate was raised in 22 years, and it was not suspended until September 23. At this time, note that the highest federal interest rate is 5.5. (By the way, just look at the magnitude of the Fed's previous interest rate cuts in history. Unless there is a major recession, the maximum reduction at a time is 75 basis points, otherwise it is only 25 or 50, at most 25.) That is to say, since this year, Trump has said to reduce the price by 100 basis points at a time, which is just a mouthpiece. Bao dare not say or do that. The buttocks determine the brain. So, upon seeing this, one should understand why the time cycle has been extended this time. Suspending interest rate hikes in September 2023 is theoretically a good thing, but what really ignited market sentiment and liquidity was the ooling event in October 2023 when BlackRock applied for BTC spot ETF approval, and then everyone knew about it Of course, suspending interest rate hikes is also beneficial for the risk market. But BTC was able to break through 69 to 73 at the beginning of 2024, thanks to the ETF Then it wasn't until September 2024 that the first interest rate cut was truly implemented, while August 2019 was the first time a rate cut was made That is to say, it took 8 months from the suspension of interest rate hikes to the first rate cut in 2018 to 2019. And 23-24 took a year. Besides, the 5.5 interest rate took over a year to raise (There is also the issue of stopping balance sheet tightening. It took 9 months from the suspension of interest rate hikes to the end of balance sheet tightening in 18-19, while it took 2 years and 3 months from now 23-25, so take a look at this time.) And interest rate cuts are not symmetrical. Just after the first interest rate cut in September of 24 years, Trump welcomed the general election. Trump embraced encryption and BTC, which not only gave lip service, but also brought liquidity. So we saw a breakthrough of 100000. But it is also due to the relationship between liquidity and the implementation of encryption narrative that BTC is more favored for welcoming capital inflows into encryption, with the addition of ETH and SOL at most. In fact, there is liquidity entering for others, but not much. Then, after Trump came to power, this year's events, tariffs and so on. Don't forget that the interest rate cut was suspended for nine months. As I mentioned earlier, interest rate cuts and rate hikes are not symmetrical Looking back at 2019, the first interest rate cut was in August, and it wasn't until the first quarter of 2020 that the unemployment rate rose and the US economy declined. It was easy for interest rates to reach zero, so QE saved the economy Finally, a super bull market of 20-21 was born. And what we are currently experiencing is actually returning that QE. We will have to pay it back sooner or later when we come out to work. It's just inflation. But the economy is still okay now, there is no recession. Inflation is slowly slowing down We will continue to cut interest rates in September this year, the second time in October. The interest rate is still at 4, and the investment preference of funds is still very low. So that's why this cycle has been extended .. (We are still before the beginning of 2020, which is before 312. Because there is still a possibility of a recession later. Don't forget the September labor force data released last night, which is 4.4.) So we will experience either interest rate cuts during economic recession or positive news, and BTC will rise Without interest rate cuts and speculation, coupled with the government shutdown and lack of liquidity, the market has fallen, just like now. There are also concerns about tariffs and inflation, which are not conducive to interest rate cuts and the market is also declining, just like in March and April this year Next, we will experience that once the speculation of interest rate cuts continues and there is no expectation of an economic recession, BTC will also rise. Once the interest rate cut is suspended, there is concern that tariff inflation will fall again .. Until which one can't stand it first, the economy, inflation, or employment? In the end, it's very simple: either decline, interest rates go to zero, and new QE. Or there is no recession, a soft landing. Limited easing trend (in human terms, it means that interest rates end when they reach 3 or 2 o'clock, and then the balance sheet expands without QE) There may be other situations, but I can't say for sure now But no matter what, the current trend is still loose. In the end, I don't know if there will be 312 in this cycle, in other words, the last drop. After QE, the liquidity girl will be activated. But this cycle is really too long. And I have also experienced a lot. For example, the President of the United States embraces and adds these things Until the end of 2019 and before the year 312. Finally, let me add one more sentence: Don't talk about a four-year halving cycle. Hey guys, can't you see that BTC is no longer the same as before What BTC is looking at now is liquidity. Where does liquidity come from? It has already been mentioned above.