My observation is generally consistent with Brother Usaqi's conclusion: the risk during this period is the real interest rate, and the subsequent risk is whether the correlation between stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange will gradually increase 1. Current risk: Real interest rates are suppressing the width of the entire financial market The current macro strategy background is that fiscal expectations need to be relaxed to increase bond supply and inflation tends to decline. However, the Federal Reserve has chosen a hawkish speech at this time, which is a double blow to the risk asset market. Real interest rate=Long end interest rate - Inflation expectation, which now falls into the category of the former's expected increase+the latter's downward trend, which will lower the risk appetite of the entire market. *Choosing to lower the expectation of interest rate cuts during periods without data is also in line with the consistent operation of the Federal Reserve 2. Subsequent risks: The correlation between the US dollar and US stocks has turned from negative to positive, and it is necessary to avoid being killed by stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange The recent changes in real interest rates have altered the correlation between the US dollar and US stocks. When both the US dollar and US stocks begin to sell off, it indicates that global funds are withdrawing from the US dollar standard. So the US stock market/cryptocurrency circle and other US dollar based markets have not only been affected by the domestic government shutdown of liquidity (reflected in TGA account balances), but also by the liquidity impact brought about by the withdrawal of overseas funds. In the first half of the year, we have experienced a similar "three kills" of stock and bond exchange. If the data during the lockout period is not awesome or the Federal Reserve still excessively maintains hawkish, it is possible to further adjust downward to bring about recession narrative - the dollar and the US stock/currency circle and other markets were sold off at the same time, and then the Federal Reserve hurried to ease again. 3. Reflection on subsequent transactions This state of affairs is definitely unsustainable in the long run. Trump's decision to tighten the fiscal policy at the beginning of the year and start easing the fiscal policy in the middle of the year already represents that fiscal and monetary policies have been hijacked by the financial market. My subjective opinion is: weak employment, downward inflation trend, more moderate tariffs than at the beginning of the year, and liquidity constraints due to long-term balance sheet tightening. When the financial system faces simultaneous selling of the US dollar and US stocks, is it really necessary for the Federal Reserve to tighten policy? Powell has repeatedly proven himself to be a slippery head rather than a Paul Volcker level hawkish The more you lie flat during this period, the luckier you will be Now it's an ambiguous position, the bold ones have already bought the bottom, and right-handed players like me need data to confirm that the correlation has decreased and wait for the Federal Reserve to turn around, with funds returning to support dollar denominated risk assets again. More important signals: The correlation between the US dollar and the US stock market has shifted from positive to negative ⭐⭐⭐ 2. TGA balance decreases 3. Real interest rates are starting to decrease