Bitcoin treasury companies have been one of the clearest examples this year of how quickly market sentiment can swing. h/t @_Adrian I was recently reading Howard Marks’ recent investor memo published a few days ago titled “Cockroaches in the Coal Mine.” He revisited a concept from his book called the cycle in attitudes toward risk. He writes, “Security prices fluctuate much more than the intrinsic value and prospects of the underlying companies. The main reason for this is the extreme volatility in the way people feel about risk.” Marks also describes how, during euphoric periods, investors start to believe that “risk is my friend, the more risk I take, the more money I make.” That idea feels especially relevant today. Earlier this year, some Bitcoin treasury companies traded at more than 5x mNAV as investors embraced risk and viewed premiums as justified. Those premiums helped companies issue equity, generate BTC Yield, and amplify bitcoin per share for shareholders. Now, some of those same companies trade below 1x mNAV. The fundamentals have not changed much. They still hold the same Bitcoin, can access capital around 10%, and operate in a world where Bitcoin’s 10 year CAGR could plausibly exceed 30%. It is essentially a carry trade between cheap capital and perfectly scarce digital property. What has changed is the market’s attitude toward risk. And as Marks points out, that can swing far more violently than the fundamentals ever do. Full letter from @Oaktree Capital Management: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/cockroaches-in-the-coal-mine.pdf(Joe Burnett, MSBA)