TraderS | 缺德道人
TraderS | 缺德道人|Nov 08, 2025 14:44
Today, putting two pieces of news together makes for a very interesting read. One is that the U.S. Treasury plans to auction a total of $125 billion in Treasuries of various maturities next week. Additionally, the market is expected to see around $40 billion in investment-grade corporate bond issuances. Since Tuesday is Veterans Day in the U.S. and the bond market will be closed, this means a massive supply will have to be squeezed into a compressed trading week. The other is that on November 6th, China's Ministry of Finance issued $4 billion in sovereign bonds in Hong Kong. However, compared to the scale of U.S. government bonds and the global dollar bond market, this is still relatively small. The yield for this issuance is around 3.65-3.79%, which is not far off from U.S. Treasuries of the same maturity. This indicates that the market holds a relatively high opinion of China's creditworthiness and issuance environment. China issuing dollar bonds at this time, though on a smaller scale, still creates a certain level of competition with the U.S., taking a slice from the already scarce liquidity pool. U.S. Treasuries, AI corporate bonds, China's dollar bonds, and other well-known and lesser-known bonds are all drawing water from the increasingly dry liquidity reservoir. No wonder the water level in the crypto pool is getting lower and lower. Although these days are tough to endure, the U.S. government isn’t having an easy time either. When both parties fight to the point of exhaustion and are forced to release funds from the TGA pool, and when the Fed can no longer hold out and has to expand its balance sheet, the good days will come. For now, what we need to do is survive, survive, and damn it, survive. Hold onto the last bullet, the last drop of blood, and stay alive until the water comes.
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