In the foam, Dario's latest article is a bit radical: he believes that the current easing policy of the Federal Reserve is being implemented at a time when asset valuations are high and the economy is relatively strong. The end of QT is "stimulus into a bubble" (to stimulate a foam market) rather than the traditional "stimulus into a depression" (to stimulate an economy in recession). Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously stated that with the expansion of the banking system and the size of the economy, the Fed "will re increase reserves at an appropriate time. In Dalio's view, this means that QE is returning - albeit packaged as a 'technical operation'. It's equivalent to Dario discussing the Federal Reserve's upcoming balance sheet tightening and the possibility of resuming bond purchases in the future. We talked about it yesterday https://(x.com)/qinbafrank/status/1986788731597320334? S=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A These actions are almost regarded as QE. He believes that they are essentially the Federal Reserve's financing for treasury bond, a disguised monetization of government debt. In the context of high fiscal deficits and lower interest rates, balance sheet expansion and treasury bond purchase directly finance the government, rather than simply inject liquidity into the market. Dario also made a comparison: the background of the Fed's QE in history was economic recession, low asset valuations, low inflation, and rising credit spreads. Currently, the S&P 500 has a profit yield of 4.4%, a 10-year US Treasury yield of 4%, and an equity risk premium of only 0.3%; The unemployment rate is 4.3%, with inflation slightly exceeding 3% and being pushed up by de globalization; Currently, credit and liquidity are abundant, and credit spreads are close to historical lows. Implementing QE in this environment constitutes a 'stimulus into a bubble'. He described a scenario like this: If the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve begins to significantly expand while interest rates are lowered, and the fiscal deficit remains large, we will see this as a typical monetary and fiscal interaction between the Federal Reserve and the Treasury Department, used to monetize government debt. In Dalio's view, the current US policy combination - fiscal deficit expansion, monetary easing restart, regulatory easing, AI boom - is forming a "super loose" situation with growth as the bet. This makes the current policy appear more dangerous and inflationary. He believes that in the short term, the market may usher in a "liquidity carnival" similar to that on the eve of the bursting of the Internet foam in 1999 or during the QE period in 2010-2011. Although such policies tend to create asset booms in the short term, they often mean that the foam expands faster; Inflation is more difficult to control; The accumulation of risks is deeper. And when policies are forced to reverse, the cost will be even greater. Overall, it seems that Dario's intention is: to shake off in the short term, continue to have fun in the medium term, and leave the big hidden dangers for the future?