
NingNing|Oct 12, 2025 04:50
Successfully unlocked a new achievement in life this noon: the strongest king of LOL
Finally, I have more spare energy to review and adjust my investment strategy between the September interest rate cut and the October 11th crash.
The main reason for this wave of floating losses is the Alpha position betting that DeAI and DeSci will become the main lines of Uptober.
However, despite repeated reminders from the Agent about the privacy sector represented by ZEC (Cryptopunk Narrative Renaissance), they hesitated to shift their losing Alpha position to the privacy sector.
Understand the past without remonstrance, know that the future can be pursued! Taking advantage of the current situation where the uncertainty of encryption is maximized, adjust your investment strategy.
Firstly, we draw inspiration from reinforcement learning methods in the field of AI to abstract a financial trading environment, whose state is as follows:
--The US economic cycle is in a period of overheating from the Merrill Lynch clock ➡️ [A] The three-way intersection of soft landing | [B] stagflation | [C] recession;
--The US monetary cycle is in a state of the second interest rate cut and quantitative tightening, while the US fiscal policy is in a state of fiscal subsidy reduction and tax reduction;
--The second interest rate cut in the US monetary cycle has led to a strong bearish rise in the US dollar index, which is currently approaching 100
--The main theme of the geopolitical environment is the tariff war between China and the United States. The horn of the second battle has just sounded
--The cryptocurrency market is in a period of narrative fatigue and innovation bottleneck, and the current market is completely driven by risk sentiment and liquidity. After the Great Budget on October 11th, liquidity has not yet been restored, and the effectiveness of market pricing is seriously insufficient.
Secondly, we need to carefully set the goals of our investment strategy. In the morning, I thought about using Alpha Agent's powerful target selection ability to quickly eliminate the floating losses since September by chasing after the rise and killing the fall. But now that my mentality has calmed down, I am more inclined to set a longer period, low maximum drawdown, and stable PnL growth curve goal.
Finally, there is the adjustment of investment strategy. Based on the current environment and set goals, the following strategic adjustments will be made:
--The term structure of the current cryptocurrency options market indicates that the market will remain flat for a long time in Q4, and the probability of breaking through the $130000 mark is rapidly decreasing. In addition, the huge uncertainty brought by external geopolitics, economic cycles, and currency cycles, in the face of the fact that the Uptober market has been falsified, strategically give up adding BTC to the Bata position
--The DeSci and DeAI prices of Alpha positions are very weak and difficult to repair in the short term. Resolutely choose to stop loss and redistribute the released U for deployment. Due to my personal judgment that the knockoff season will only have structural opportunities, I currently prefer to deploy in strong sectors such as privacy and alternative investment opportunities such as PT-KAITO and YT-USDE
The above.
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