Almost everyone is asking whether the four-year cycle still holds any guiding value. The Bitcoin halving-driven four-year cycle narrative hasn’t completely disappeared, but it’s no longer the main theme of the market. Most people can feel that BTC halving doesn’t have any real impact in driving BTC to break ATH. First, on the day of the halving in April 2024, miner fee revenue hit a historic high of $78.3 million, but this wasn’t due to the halving itself—it was because new application protocols like Runes/Ordinals sparked a surge in on-chain activity. As the hype faded, by summer 2024, on-chain fees had dropped more than 80% from their April peak. At the same time, the market experienced significant fluctuations in hash rate, but by August, hash rate quickly hit new highs. This is because miners are no longer simply mining and selling BTC; most of the time, they’re using financial tools like hash rate futures and forward contracts to hedge risks and smooth cash flow. In summary: First, the supply contraction brought by halving has been overshadowed by the dramatic fluctuations in real on-chain application demand. Second, the classic script of miners struggling post-halving, leading to miner bankruptcies and market bottoming out, no longer exists. This means the miner-driven four-year cycle has reduced its influence on the market to a certain extent. Of course, the most important factor now is U.S. Treasury yields dominating global risk markets. Stablecoin giant Tether disclosed in the first half of 2024 that it holds nearly $100 billion in U.S. Treasuries, with a half-year profit of $5.2 billion. This means the top-tier liquidity in crypto is increasingly tied to changes in T-Bill yields. The driving force behind liquidity tightening or loosening in the crypto world is now more about U.S. Treasury yield changes, rather than the four-year supply cycle.