Pathfinder
Pathfinder|Sep 07, 2025 05:46
The past few days have been buzzing with discussions about Musk's trillion-dollar Tesla equity incentive plan and Tesla's $8.5 trillion target market cap over the next 10 years. Let’s talk about it for a bit. Although I wasn’t too happy with his political stance recently, if he focuses on running the business, Tesla could still be one of the greatest companies of the future. As a heavy user of FSD, I firmly believe that Tesla cars equipped with FSD are the most practical and greatest "robots" in human history, with limitless potential. Plus, Tesla's pure vision-based autonomous driving solution is far ahead of the game, whether compared to domestic EV startups or Waymo. Some people bring up Waymo L4 and FSD L2 to argue, but that’s just armchair theorizing. FSD achieving L2 is a matter of minutes—it’s just that Tesla probably thinks the timing isn’t right yet. Waymo’s entire fleet only adds up to a few thousand vehicles, and they mainly operate in city areas with mapped routes. But how many FSD-equipped Teslas are out there? I don’t have the exact data on how much FSD has been driven, but first of all, FSD isn’t limited by roads or terrain. Secondly, it’s not just the cars actively running FSD that are contributing; all 6+ million Tesla vehicles equipped with cameras are collectively "transmitting real-world data + running simulations." This kind of data is unmatched by any competitor. That’s why Musk is aggressively expanding AI computing centers—because the sheer volume of data is overwhelming, and FSD is constantly learning and iterating at a crazy pace every day. I wrote a post before saying that if the robotaxi business opens up, this single business alone could bring Tesla over $100 billion in annual profits. Once FSD matures, it’s highly likely Tesla will license it to other automakers. Based on the U.S. subscription fee of $99/month, if 5–8 years from now there are 100 million cars using FSD, this alone could generate hundreds of billions in revenue and profit for Tesla. And that’s not even counting the automotive business, solar energy business, or the even broader potential of the robotics business. Just the two aforementioned segments could bring Tesla over $200 billion in annual profit, and with a market PE ratio of 30–50x, an $8.5 trillion market cap is entirely achievable. I think Tesla’s biggest threat doesn’t come from external competitors—it’s Musk himself. His unpredictable personality, unfiltered remarks, and occasionally overinflated ambition and desires are the real risks.
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