How to evaluate the macro risk impact level through Lemon's topic? Macro and micro? 1. Last year, I talked to my friends about the risks from a macro perspective. In essence, we need to further classify the risk levels, as the impact of different levels of risk on the market varies. So when you read my tweets, for some risk warnings, I will say big, medium, or small levels. For example, at the beginning of the year, it was discussed that there would be a moderate level adjustment in the US stock market and overall market this year. https://(((x.com))/qinba frank/status/1899973508693975221? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A， Let's talk about the small-scale impact of risks in the future. It is also necessary to distinguish the difference between risk and crisis here, such as the difference between risk and crisis in US Treasury bonds discussed earlier https://((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/1925774405071712486? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 If you don't learn to classify risk levels and distinguish between risks and crises, it's easy to see small risks as big risks and big risks as deadly crises. 2. Macroscopically, we look at where we are heading, while microscopically, we determine which car we want to get into. There are also two meanings here: 1) It is necessary to distinguish which targets are greatly influenced by macro factors and which targets are greatly influenced by fundamentals. Last year we talked about https://(((x.com))/qinba frank/status/1808386547202548177? S=46&t=k6rimWs Ebo2D2TXolYcM-A coin is more influenced by macro factors, while the US stock market has a greater fundamental weight https://((((x.com))))/qinbafrank/status/1801135187335721437? s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A。 2) At the micro level, there are actually many perspectives: analysis of technological forms, structure of capital flow chips, fundamental value, and iterative growth of industries. Each method is fine and suitable. 3. For those who are pessimistic from the bottom of their hearts, From the perspective of social psychology that I talked to my friends about last year, humans fundamentally hope for better and better, because only when the cake gets bigger can everyone eat meat and drink soup. This is actually the driving force of social essence. Looking back at the various crises that humans have experienced since the Industrial Revolution, they have all overcome them and developed better and better. The essence of human society is upward, so high-quality and scarce assets that can continuously adapt to social development should also be upward. 1) The underlying logic is that productivity is constantly developing, advancing, and iterating, which requires a true understanding that technological progress is the primary productive force. Only by understanding this can it be clear whether technology is driving world progress, and whether it is a macro or geopolitical catalyst that is most expected to accelerate or hinder in the short term, without changing the overall trend. And now we are at the starting point of a new technological acceleration. 2) Of course, the master's degree is not entirely optimistic without considering any risks. We should ignore small risks, attach importance to medium risks, and prevent large risks or crises. Essentially, it is to ensure that we have the ability to overcome major risks or crises and not fall into the darkness before dawn.