🥞 After waking up, the cake has reached a new high: the two main drivers behind it are fermenting As soon as I opened my eyes in the morning, I noticed that the price of Biscuit (BTC) had skyrocketed. The reasons behind this round of price increase can be simply divided into two points—— 🟢 One: US listed companies significantly increase their holdings of cryptocurrency assets In recent days, many US listed companies have announced their purchase of Bitcoin or entry into the stablecoin field. This type of announcement has a strong boosting effect on their stock prices, so the market quickly associates it with the wave of "listed companies leading the charge" from 2019 to 2021. Funds are very smart, betting on policies first and then betting on the market - so the US stock market has brought a rhythm. 🟢 Secondly, Shanghai State owned Assets suddenly issued a statement on "learning stablecoins" What is even more surprising is that on the night of July 10th, the official website of the Shanghai State owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission released a conference briefing with the theme of "Holding a Party Committee Study Meeting on the Development Trends and Response Strategies of Cryptocurrencies and Stablecoins". This article was published at 0:10 am on July 11th, with a large number of words such as "development trends," "exploration," "research," and "response strategies" appearing in the wording. It did not avoid the topic of cryptocurrency, but instead explicitly proposed to strengthen research and exploration of digital currencies, promote the integration of production and data, and explore the application of blockchain in cross-border trade. In this morning's push, Dongfang Wealth Network listed this news as the top positive news. The market generally understands that this is the first time that the state-owned asset system has explicitly stated that it "attaches importance to the development of stablecoins", and has even been interpreted by some circles as a kind of "compliance test signal". 🕵️‍♂️ My observations and questions My first reaction when I saw price fluctuations, especially the price trend of a certain E exchange, was that something had happened. Immediately flipping through the information flow, I discovered this push of "Shanghai State owned Assets Late Night Posting". I clicked on the original official account and looked at the accompanying picture - the number of on-site participants is conservatively estimated to be more than 100, which belongs to a systematic learning meeting, not a small discussion. But what I care most about is a detail: why did you choose to publish at 0:10 in the morning? I then spent 26 minutes checking all the articles on the official account from January to July. As a result, it was found that: The vast majority of articles are published between 17:30-21:00; Very few articles are published after 22:00; None of the articles were published after 23:00. In other words, this article is the only late night "out of the box" content published in the past six months. I also carefully compared the pictures taken at the conference venue. From the transparency of the sunshade, it is obvious that the photos were taken during the day, indicating that the conference was held during the day and there should be sufficient time for manuscript preparation. Why did this article wait until midnight to be published? Is the content of the article sensitive and has a higher approval level? Is it intentionally choosing a low traffic period to "go live low-key"? Or is this itself some kind of 'policy signal test'? Either way, it's unusual. 🪙 Stablecoins: The 'bullish extension' of the US dollar Let's talk about stablecoins themselves. The reason for the birth of stable currency is that Chinese Mainland banned banks from providing services for virtual currency transactions as early as 2017. So, Teda Company launched USDT anchored at 1:1 USD to solve the "fiat currency deposit and withdrawal problem" in blockchain assets. In the first few years, the USDT volume was around 4 billion US dollars, and it often experienced anchor detachment due to doubts about its redemption ability. The most serious one was in 2018, when "anchor detachment exceeded 10%", leading to a near collapse of market confidence. But now it's different - USDT has become the biggest "ghost of the US dollar" in the real world, a US dollar system that ignores borders, has ambiguous KYC, transfers arrive in seconds, and is almost untraceable. It has helped countless people complete cross-border remittances, asset allocation, grey transactions, and even become the "lifeline" for some countries after being kicked out of the SWIFT system. That's also why governments around the world are extremely sensitive to stablecoins. On the surface, stablecoins are an innovation in blockchain technology; But fundamentally, it is a "decentralized dollar" that bypasses regulatory systems in various countries and directly enters personal wallets. Behind this is the blatant extension of the US dollar hegemony: No need to send troops, no need to negotiate; As long as stablecoins are sufficiently circulated, the global dependence on the US dollar will deepen; Even if some people's debts are not repaid one day, they can still refuse to redeem them on the grounds of "illegal regional holdings"; Ultimately, make the underlying asset of stablecoins (US bonds) safe and secure. 🚨 Stablecoins are a gray rhino In China, a large number of people indirectly hold US dollar assets through methods such as USDT. And in reality: The bank's process for converting US dollars is complex and subject to limit limits; Stablecoins can be credited within 24 hours, bypassing foreign exchange controls; Recently, due to the popularity of the US stock and cryptocurrency markets, stablecoins have become increasingly well-known as "entry tools". This matter has actually entered the mainstream from the margins and is an underestimated systemic gray rhino risk. 🔒 Final reminder Stablecoins will definitely be subject to stronger regulation in the future. Governments of various countries ultimately hope that it will be included in the real name system (KYC); For example, China's digital yuan and the United States' compliant stablecoins (such as USDC); Various restrictive policies will definitely be introduced to combat cross-border transactions, money laundering, and tax evasion of "anonymous stablecoins". It may ultimately lead in two directions: http://1.xn--j6w193g Pilot compliant stablecoins can be implemented in other regions to serve cross-border trade; 2. Mainland individuals are not allowed to hold or significantly tighten their holdings, but some enterprises or financial institutions may have access under regulation. If the 'study conference' in Shanghai is really a prelude to policy shift, then this may be a critical time point. Pay attention to time points, signals, and remain alert.