Goldman says it now expects a better than even chance the Fed's first rate cut is in September (previously, December), followed by cuts at the last two meetings of the year (for a total of -75 bps this year). "The very early evidence suggests that the tariff effects look a bit smaller than we expected, other disinflationary forces have been stronger, and we suspect that the Fed leadership shares our view that tariffs will only have a one-time price level effect."