With regard to the Israeli Iranian conflict, Trump warned on Wednesday night that the situation in the Middle East might escalate. The United States evacuated some embassy staff and US military families. The attack officially broke out on Thursday night. Israel continued to bomb Iran in response to three waves of missile attacks in the past two days, and the conflict continued to escalate. 1. Now it seems that Trump was half actively and half passively playing a double act under the pressure of Netta. In late April, Netta was about to bomb Iran. This plan was called "delayed action". At that time, Trump was unwilling to change his action plan, and the American media had to stop it temporarily. Afterwards, in May, the US Iran nuclear talks were held, but the terms could not be reached for a long time. Instead, Iran accelerated its nuclear research and development, and was basically on the brink of success. Neta cannot sit still. Once Iran truly possesses nuclear weapons, the balance of power in the Middle East will be reversed, and it will be difficult to push it back. It is estimated that Trump began to tend to attack Iran at this time. After all, Iran's possession of nuclear weapons was not what he wanted to see. It is precisely this process that has made Iran complacent and relaxed its vigilance. The internal struggle between hardliners and pro American factions in Iran (the current president is pro American), as well as the infiltration of Israel's Mossad, resulted in the killing of more than ten senior leaders and the assassination of all core nuclear scientists. Moreover, Israel has directly bombed Iran's nuclear facilities in the past two days, but due to the limited impact of high explosive ground penetrating bombs on Iran's nuclear facilities. 2. Looking at Iran's counterattacks in the past two days, the strength is stronger than last year's conflict with Iran, but it is evident from their statements that they are taking a chance. There are many internal problems in Iran itself: the struggle between hardliners and pro American factions, the drawbacks of the theocratic system, and the fact that the core interest group of Shia clerics in power is actually less than 300000 people (I personally think this statement is incorrect because Iran is controlled by Azerbaijanis because of Ayatollah Khamenei's Azerbaijani bloodline. Iran's core interest group is still the elite Shia clerics group, most of whom are Persians, and a few other ethnic groups can only say that Khamenei happens to be an Azerbaijani) These issues have all led to Iran's aggressive rhetoric towards the outside world and internal weakness in recent years. It also gave Neta the strategy of "cutting sausages", starting from October last year to sabotage Hamas, defeat Hezbollah, and reverse the situation in Syria, step by step destroying the "Shia arc" that Iran has been operating for more than a decade. Now that the Houthis are basically independent, Iraqi militia organizations are also difficult to achieve great success. Iran has a stockpile of over 2000 missiles and the ability to manufacture drones, making it capable of fighting in World War I. But it's more about defensive counterattacks, it's difficult to take the initiative and there's no strong will to fight a big battle. 3. Although the United States did not openly participate in Israel's bombing of Iran this time, it actually made significant logistical contributions. The operational radius of Israel's F35 and F36 fighter jets is only within 1500 kilometers, and they can hardly fly into Iranian territory. In recent days, a large number of Israeli fighter jets have penetrated over Tehran, mostly with the support of aerial refueling planes. Israel has a very small number of its own aerial refueling aircraft (in single digits), and the large number of long-range combat operations basically indicates that the US military's refueling aircraft in the Middle East have played a role, not to mention the suppression of Iran's defense system by US electronic warfare aircraft. According to reports, Israel lacks the cover bombs and strategic bombers needed for Iran's underground nuclear facilities in the Foreway, and requires the support of the United States for the temporary rejection. I think the attitude of Americans is: 1) See if Israel can hurt Iran and force it to accept the terms of the US nuclear agreement; 2) If Iran is tough, then the two countries will continue to attack each other. If Iran's missiles are almost depleted and its fighter jets are destroyed without long-range strike capabilities, it cannot be ruled out that the United States will take action to completely eliminate Fordhal in the final stage. If we reach the second step, it is estimated that both the United States and Israel have plans to undermine the Iranian regime. 4. The next focus of observation is: Have you entered a full-scale war mode? Is there any sign of blockade in the Strait of Hormuz? We are still far from the 'Hormuz blockade' because it is Iran's last resort and will not be easily used. After all, it will also cause significant economic damage to oneself. The short-term impact of the Strait of Hormuz on the market lies in the further escalation of the situation, as nearly a quarter of the world's crude oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which has a significant impact on crude oil prices. 5. The impact on the market lies in The outbreak of regional wars alone can trigger market panic, but such shocks are often short-term and one-time. For example, on February 23, 2022, the outbreak of the Russo Ukrainian War had an impact on the market for almost a week, and the market would quickly interpret various pessimistic expectations. But after this period of time, the market will still return to its original driving logic. Especially when wars and conflicts do not occur within the United States or between China and the United States, the impact on the market is limited. But the long-term impact cannot be ignored, it just doesn't show up so quickly. The most direct long-term impact of the ongoing conflict between Iran and Iraq is that oil prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall. Originally, due to OPEC's increased production in April and May, oil prices continued to weaken, which led to lower than expected inflation in the United States. If oil prices remain high in the following months, the upward risk of driving US inflation will be significant, which will be reflected in the inflation data for July and August.