Pai X
Pai X|Jun 02, 2025 18:35
Firstly, I strongly agree ✅ The painter's viewpoint! Relying solely on drawing lines is not very meaningful for making transactions! The trading system is a complete closed-loop verifiable system! I don't think those analysts who draw a bunch of spider webs have much trading significance either! Continuing with this topic, let me have a chat The most basic logic is that trading is subjective, so any technical analysis based on this foundation is also subjective. Taking basic indicators as an example, the essence of the moving average (MA) is the dynamic average, which reflects the trend direction of prices and the support resistance effect. That is to say, the result of MA is unique for analysis. But the game in the market is dynamic, can everyone determine the only direction for the future with only one result? Have you decided on the future direction? It's obviously impossible! So the question is, what is the difference between trend lines and MA? The only difference is that trend lines have higher flexibility compared to MA, which has unique results that can be adjusted based on market fluctuations. But in this case, the subjectivity is indeed higher! This places greater emphasis on traders' understanding of the market, making it more suitable for dynamic market games. The uniqueness of MA results emphasizes the objectivity of data outcomes, but it also makes it easier for traders to fall into the self confirmation trap of trading. So you need to learn how to draw a trend line well, which is the first lesson of pattern analysis But don't forget, not everyone can draw an ordinary trend line. The familiar structures such as head, shoulder, top, bottom, flag, triangle, wedge, etc. all rely on the most basic trend line. Whether you make money or not and whether you draw it well or not have an absolute relationship with the standard, because the market is dynamic, just like MA, not everyone can use it well to make money. The same tool carries different fates, and even the best tool is useless if not used properly. No matter how good the tools are, they are just tools. The complete construction of a trading system is the core of a trader, not just technical analysis. To generalize, what is the best combination? The moving average is a "data-driven trend indicator" and the trend line is a "visualized trend trajectory". The two are often used in combination - the moving average confirms the direction of the trend, while the trend line assists in determining the turning point of the trend, jointly improving the accuracy of analysis. This is just an example, my core point is that trading emphasizes more on probability and profit loss ratio! Even if it's a gamble, the difference lies in the size of the risk exposure and how to control it, whether it's through position or the bias of the analysis results. To put it plainly, there is no hierarchy of disdain in technical analysis because transactions are subjective. As long as the results are not available, all analysis is based on theory and data. These so-called objective theories and data are only used for analysis and ultimately result in subjective probability bias. Subjective! Subjective! Subjective! There is no distinction between good and bad trading tools. Buffett has never said it, Duan Yongping has never said it, and he has never even used it. But their investment system has been repeatedly validated, which means that transactions have no uniqueness and do not rely on any fixed pattern. But risk control is definitely the most important and core part of their investment system!
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