The April CPI released last night showed that commodity prices have just returned to the inflation zone (+0.1% year-on-year), while service sector inflation continues to decline, with core service sectors showing an increase on a month on month basis. Further subdividing, the so-called 'super core CPI' (excluding housing) for the service industry fell to 3.01% year-on-year, the lowest level since December 2021. However, the decline in housing prices is still relatively slow, and there is also pressure for future car price increases. For the subsequent trend of inflation, the following points need to be paid attention to: 1. Can oil prices continue to decline or remain low? 2. The transmission effect of tariffs in the first month of implementation in April is not yet significant, but it should become apparent in May and June. To what extent will the energy and service industries hedge against the strengthening of commodity inflation in the future? 3. There is also a 90 day time window for this Sino US negotiation: prior to the negotiation, a substantial embargo had already been implemented between China and the United States. The previous optimistic expectation was that after negotiations, tariffs would be reduced by half to a level of 50-60%. Even at such tariff levels, most companies cannot survive, so there may be widespread shortages of goods, as well as large-scale layoffs or bankruptcies of enterprises. But in the end, the actual result was a tariff reduction of only 30%, which was half the optimistic market expectation. Will it bring a new wave of hoarding to prevent any changes after 90 days. 4. How long does the rush of buying in February and March last, followed by the destocking in May and June?