Years later, facing the execution squad, Colonel Aureliano Buendia will recall the distant afternoon when his father took him to see the ice cubes A long time later, while lamenting the collapse and chaos of the world order, one may not have realized the quietly emerging new order, new system, and new assets The cooling of recession expectations is just a market swing. Between expected recession and no recession, expected interest rate cuts and no interest rate cuts, the market always swings, which also provides huge arbitrage opportunities for volatility. I do think that the anti globalization that began in 2018, as well as the recognition of the necessity of anti globalization brought about by the pandemic, are destined to make it difficult to lower interest rates. Strong expectations, weak reality "is suitable for both recession and interest rate cuts: there will be no recession, no interest rate cut, and even a possible interest rate hike It is very unusual that raising interest rates does not necessarily mean that there is no opportunity for assets, but rather there is a great chance for industries with significantly improved marginal efficiency (AI, new media, etc.), as well as asset/currency rebalancing within the pool Raising interest rates is not just a slogan, so in recent years, we hardly bet on interest rate cuts. We can participate in market fluctuations in response to the "expectation" of interest rate cuts, even if the Federal Reserve is really forced to cut interest rates by Trump. Before it is realized, we will not see rabbits or eagles, and will always follow the allocation of interest rate hikes Cross the entire market with barbell strategy