The final chapter of the generation of stock gods! On May 2nd, Buffett announced that he would retire at the end of the year, marking the retirement of a stock god! Investment career comes to a successful conclusion! Let's take a look at the evolution of Berkshire Hathaway's historical cash reserve ratio as a percentage of total assets during Buffett's tenure, as well as the development of Crypto during this period and Buffett's attitude towards Crypto. Internet foam burst 1) In 1998, Berkshire's cash reserve ratio reached about 15%, the highest point at that time. The background at this time was the Internet boom. The NASDAQ index rose by nearly 400% between 1995 and 2000, and technology stocks became the representative of risk assets. However, Buffett remained alert to these overvalued "new economy" companies and refused to participate in the foam investment boom. In 2000, the Internet foam burst, the NASDAQ index plummeted nearly 80%, and Berkshire's cash reserve ratio fell to a low of about 5%. Buffett took advantage of this opportunity to buy down traditional value assets, demonstrating his precise grasp of the risk asset cycle. subprime crisis 2) In 2005, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserve ratio climbed to about 25%, reaching a new peak. During this period, the foam of the real estate market expanded, and the subprime derivatives promoted the excessive leverage of risk assets. The S&P 500 index rose by about 60% between 2003 and 2007, but Buffett's choice to hold more cash foreshadowed his concerns about market overheating. The subprime crisis broke out in 2008, and the S&P 500 index fell nearly 50% between 2007 and 2009. Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserve ratio dropped to about 10% in 2008, but it was still sufficient to support Buffett's investments in companies such as Goldman Sachs and General Electric during crisis lows, in order to achieve long-term returns. At this time, Bitcoin had just emerged and the Crypto market had not yet formed a scale, with traditional stocks and bonds still being the main risk assets. 2009-2020: The rise of cryptocurrency and the liquidity crisis of the COVID-19 3) In the market recovery period after 2009, risk assets entered a new bull market, and the S&P 500 index rose by about 400% from its low point in 2009 to 2020. At the same time, the crypto market is rapidly rising. The price of Bitcoin soared from a few cents in 2010 to around $20000 in 2020, making Crypto an important component of risk assets. However, Buffett has always been skeptical of cryptocurrencies, publicly stating multiple times that Bitcoin "has no intrinsic value" and comparing it to the "square of rat poison". In 2020, the COVID-19 triggered a global liquidity crisis, and the risk asset market was severely shaken. The S&P 500 index fell by about 30% in March 2020, and the price of Bitcoin also fell from $10000 to below $4000 during the same period. Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserve ratio reached about 20% in 2020, reflecting Buffett's vigilance towards market uncertainty. The market rebounded rapidly after the pandemic - the S&P 500 index recovered and hit a new high in the second half of 2020, and Bitcoin soared to nearly $70000 in 2021- Buffett did not significantly increase his holdings in risky assets and still did not venture into Crypto. 2025: Historical high in cash reserves! 4) From 2021 to 2025, the risk asset and crypto markets will continue to exhibit high volatility. The S&P 500 index continued to rise between 2021 and 2023 due to global economic recovery, but experienced a pullback in 2024 due to inflationary pressures and geopolitical tensions. The cryptocurrency market is even more intense. After reaching a historical high at the end of 2021, the price of Bitcoin fell to about $16000 in 2022 due to the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and regulatory tightening. Then, in 2024, it broke through a historical high and reached around $100K due to favorable factors such as ETF approval and Trump related policies! By 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserve ratio will reach an astonishing historical high of 28%! This data is closely related to the potential overheating of the risk asset market. At the beginning of 2025, the P/E ratio of the S&P 500 index is approaching historical highs, and although the cryptocurrency market has rebounded, its volatility and regulatory uncertainty still deter Buffett. Buffett's high cash reserve strategy may reflect his dual concerns about overvalued risk assets and the instability of the crypto market! But forgive my bold words! It is also possible that the old man, in order to preserve his retirement, may only retain enough cash at the end of his investment career in order to leave greater cash space for his successor to cope with future market fluctuations. And draw a perfect ending for yourself! Because cash is not only a shield for defense, but also a weapon for offense. I think this is also the core of the old man's investment career in dealing with all unknown crises! Buffett's investment philosophy has always revolved around value investing and risk control. So we also have to consider that a new high of 28% in cash reserve ratio by 2025 may be Buffett's final warning to the current market environment. From 1990 to 2025, Berkshire Hathaway's cash reserve ratio reflects Buffett's strategic choices in different market cycles. His cautious attitude towards risky assets reflects the persistence and wisdom of a value investing master, but his clear rejection of Crypto! I think besides being incompatible with his value investment system, what's more is that there isn't much time left for his career. END.