be vigilant! The early morning interest rate meeting on Thursday may become a market "explosion point", and the June interest rate cut may fail. Is the pace of the bull market going to change? The net inflow of funds into Bitcoin ETFs has reached a historic high. Should we reduce our holdings at this time, or is the bull market just beginning? First, let's talk about the most important focus of the global market this week—— The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting will be held at 2:00 am Beijing time on Thursday, which may determine the direction of the entire capital market going forward. This meeting will bring several key pieces of information, and we can use the existing data to predict the possible market reaction in advance. Firstly, the first event to pay attention to is the outcome of the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting. It is almost certain that there will be no interest rate cut this time, and the market has already priced this expectation. Therefore, the impact of this outcome on the cryptocurrency industry can be ignored. But the impact of the second event is even more profound and has reversed, that is, the Federal Reserve will provide guidance for the next interest rate meeting. This information is crucial as it determines whether the interest rate cut cycle will resume in six months, which is of great significance for us to assess future market trends. According to the latest interest rate market data, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June has halved, from 68% to 31.8%, while the probability of not cutting interest rates has increased to 67%. Therefore, there is a two-thirds chance that Powell's speech on Wednesday night will be bearish, while the probability of being bullish is only one-third. Everyone needs to pay special attention to this. If Powell hints at a rate cut starting in June this week, we can buy back some of our positions in a timely manner, as there is still enough time before June. However, this possibility is only 31%. But if Powell adopts a hawkish stance and does not cut interest rates, the market may experience a sharp decline. So, I would rather earn less than be trapped at a high point. We can patiently wait for a few days, and the results will soon become clear.