
Lanli|蓝犁道人|Mar 13, 2025 21:32
Dongda's finances are far less optimistic than they seem.
On the surface, the fiscal deficit may not seem high, with a general public budget deficit rate of 4.8% in 2024. However, China's finances actually have four accounts, the most important of which are the general public budget and government funds, plus the revenue account of state-owned enterprises. When these three accounts are added together, the fiscal deficit in 2024 will be 10 trillion yuan, with a broad deficit rate of 7.5%.
From the past, the overall deficit ratio was well controlled before 2015. Starting from 2015, the fiscal deficit ratio increased first, perhaps to cope with the economic downturn that year. From the perspective of income, the revenue from government funds (mainly land sales) has increased from 4 trillion yuan in 2015 to nearly 10 trillion yuan in 2021, while government fund spending (urban infrastructure, etc.) has also begun to soar. This did not initially lead to a deficit, but since 2020, it has generated a government fund deficit of 2.4% of GDP, combined with a government budget deficit of 6.1% for crude oil, making it an astonishing 8% level.
So overall, it's two stories:
Starting from 2015, government spending will become deficit oriented, with the general public budget deficit increasing from<3% to over 3%
2/The infrastructure construction of local governments has surged since 2016, which was initially a basic balance between income and expenditure. However, the growth rate of land sales revenue slowed down in 2020 and began to decrease after 2021. It is difficult to maintain the expenditure at a level of 10-11 trillion yuan, resulting in an additional deficit of about 2.5%.
So although Dongda is conquering the technology market, its overall financial situation is actually somewhat problematic.
From another perspective, there are only two ways out for a fiscal deficit: one is a significant decline, such as cutting down local infrastructure all at once The other is the issuance and depreciation of currency. The United States has chosen decline, while Eastern University has not yet made such a choice.
The specific path is already available, that is, the central bank buys treasury bond, The nun's head can be touched by Emperor Mei, but not by Dongda?
So the US and the East are facing difficulties, as the overvalued US dollar has squeezed out the manufacturing industry and needs to depreciate. But the problem is that there is also a demand for depreciation of the Chinese yuan On the other hand, the Chinese yuan does not want to depreciate against the US dollar - this has been evident in the past two years.
So the conclusion is clear: gold goes to heaven, BTC goes to heaven.
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