According to data from AiCoin, on November 14, multiple media outlets mentioned that the BIT/bit related entity has rebuilt leveraged long positions on-chain through at least 9 addresses, with a nominal total size of approximately $155 million. However, as of the time of disclosure, this group of long positions is in a state of approximately $44.06 million in unrealized losses, and the cost of funding has not yet been accounted for, indicating significant short-term pressure on the balance sheet. It is worth emphasizing that this entity previously concentrated on going long ETH using a group of now-deactivated addresses from April to August 2024, achieving over $67.05 million in cumulative profits. This trading history makes its current leveraging appear more like a systematic bet with a clear trading hypothesis rather than a random increase in positions. In response to the floating losses at the micro-address level, on-chain statistics from analyst Darkfost show that after excluding chips that have not moved for over 10 years, currently less than 45% of BTC supply is profitable. The proportion of losing chips in active supply has surpassed that of profitable chips. Historically, similar structures often correspond to the low points during price correction phases, but existing conclusions stem from a single monitoring and research source and need subsequent cross-validation. In this context, the BIT-related entity continues to hold high-leverage long positions in the loss zone. With the structural pressure of overall losing active bitcoins, whether this current situation should be viewed as a reverse layout from an experienced long or as a high-risk exposure operation will become an unavoidable core framework when observing this set of addresses and overall market chip behavior.
The Same Long: From $67.05 Million Profit to $44.06 Million Loss
If we break down this year's operation into two acts, the rhythm differences of the same BIT/bit-related entity on-chain are very evident. From April to August, this participant concentrated on going long ETH through a set of addresses, and according to AiCoin data, achieved over $67.05 million in cumulative profits (from a single source). After completing this stage, the early addresses used for building positions have become mostly inactive, and they did not continue to roll over leverage or build up positions on the original addresses. This practice of "withdrawing after profits and resetting the address level" reflects a strong cyclical awareness and a preference for position isolation.
Entering November, on-chain monitoring shows that this entity has activated at least 9 new addresses to rebuild a leveraged long position primarily in ETH and secondarily in BTC, with a total nominal size of approximately $155 million. This includes about 60,841.22 ETH longs and 600 BTC longs (from a single source). As of November 14, this new set of positions is in a state of approximately $44.06 million in unrealized losses, and the cost of funding has yet to be factored in. The shift from earning $67.05 million in one ETH long to temporarily enduring a $44.06 million floating loss in the next round reflects continued willingness to bet on trends in highly volatile assets and an operational style that manages the rhythm of rounds through "phased position building and address cutting cycles."
$155 Million in Leveraged Longs: Focused on ETH and Supplemented by BTC
According to on-chain monitoring, this BIT/bit-related entity currently holds leveraged long positions totaling approximately $155 million through 9 addresses, where the asset structure shows a clear tendency toward “ETH as the main target and BTC as a supplement.” Specifically, the positions include about 60,841.22 ETH longs and 600 BTC longs, with the former being significantly higher in quantity than the latter, forming the absolute main body of the current long layout. Previously, an unrealized loss of about $44.06 million has been recorded, and this floating loss only reflects changes in the underlying contract price, while the corresponding funding costs have not yet been accounted for in the overall position performance.
It is important to emphasize that although the nominal size and number of underlying assets have been broken down by on-chain monitoring, the key parameters of this entity’s leverage ratio, opening price, liquidation price, margin rate, etc., have not been disclosed. The lack of transparency regarding the funding rate and holding period implies that it is difficult for outsiders to assess the real risk exposure range of this $155 million long position as prices continue to fluctuate, including how much further withdrawal it can withstand, whether there are high-leverage sub-positions close to the liquidation line, and the specific degree of impact that accumulated funding costs have on the overall profit and loss curve, currently all remain highly uncertain.
The Proportion of Losing Active BTC Chips Surpasses Profitability
From a broader perspective on chip structure, according to analyst Darkfost's statistics, after excluding “long-term dormant” bitcoins that have not moved for over 10 years, currently less than 45% of BTC supply is profitable, meaning that among the actively traded chips, more than half are in an unrealized loss state. This is further reflected directly in the same dataset: within the active supply, the proportion of losing positions has exceeded that of profitable positions, showing a structural pattern of “the majority being stuck, while a minority remains profitable,” indicating that market sentiment and subsequent behavior are more likely to revolve around the retention of losing chips rather than being driven by widespread profit-taking.
From historical experience, when the proportion of profitable supply drops to around 40%, it usually corresponds to price correction phases near low points; conversely, when the proportion approaches 100%, the risk of Bitcoin prices turning down significantly increases. The former provides a reference for “whether we are close to the emotional and chip pressure release finale,” while the latter highlights the risk range of “whether profit positions are overly crowded and whether potential selling pressure is concentrated.” It should be emphasized that these conclusions currently come from a single source of monitoring and research, being more about statistical correlation rather than a necessary cause, and without further cross-validation, the proportion of profitable/loss-making chips is more suitable as a rough auxiliary coordinate for observing the current correction or reversal phase position, rather than a definitive signal that can independently trigger trading decisions.
The Collision Between Professional Longs Increasing Positions Against the Trend and Losing Structure
Contrasting this BIT/bit-related entity that has established approximately $155 million in leveraged longs through at least 9 addresses with the current overall loss pattern of Bitcoin's active chips, a significant tension arises: on the one hand, after excluding over 10 years of inactive chips, less than 45% of BTC supply is profitable, and with the proportion of losing chips in active supply having already surpassed that of profitable chips, this entity still chooses to restart its bets with about 60,841.22 ETH longs and 600 BTC longs, with unrealized losses currently reaching about $44.06 million; on the other hand, although the profitability supply proportion of BTC is significantly below historical high ranges, it has not yet touched the reference line near the historical low of around 40%. The on-chain structure shows a state of “pressured but not fully released,” rather than having reached a typical bottom signal phase.
In this combined environment, the narrative divergence between this micro-bet and the macro pressure can easily arise: some observers may tend to interpret it as the same professional long continuing to increase leverage against the trend within the correction range, attempting to replicate the pace of over $67.05 million in cumulative profits from going long ETH in April to August; there are also viewpoints emphasizing that currently, there is no public on-chain evidence showing that this entity has significantly reduced positions or engaged in systematic hedging, and its true identity, source of funds, leverage ratio, opening and liquidation prices, and other key information remain undisclosed. Moreover, related data and conclusions currently come from a single monitoring and research source, these long operations should be viewed as a case that exposes a high-risk position in the overall loss environment of active chips rather than as a reliable signal that can simply be extrapolated to represent consensus across the entire market.
Catching the Falling Knife or Successfully Bottoming? What to Observe Next
Looking ahead, whether this approximately $155 million long position is catching a falling knife or successfully bottoming hinges on two lines: first, whether this BIT/bit-related entity chooses to add to positions, reduce positions, or shift leverage exposure; second, whether the price paths of ETH and BTC align with its movement from approximately $44.06 million in unrealized losses back to breakeven or even into profit. Due to the funding cost not yet being quantified and disclosed, and the leverage ratio and liquidation range being in an unknown state, the current position adjustments resemble a high-risk gamble under incomplete information. External observations can only assess whether risks are actively being reduced by monitoring the actual increases and decreases of positions on-chain. On the other hand, the proportion of chips in profitable states within Bitcoin's active supply has not yet approached the historical low threshold of around 40%, necessitating close tracking of whether this ratio further declines towards 40% or exhibits a clear recovery to discern whether we are approaching historical low point areas or entering a stage of gradually repairing the profit structure. Until all these variables are clarified, the relevant position and chip structure data only come from a single on-chain monitoring and analysis source, requiring conclusions to be continuously adjusted with subsequent data updates from sources like AiCoin. Its on-chain signal more accurately indicates the concentrated risk exposure within the overall loss environment of active chips rather than providing a definitive guide to the next market direction for BTC and ETH.
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