The US spot Bitcoin ETF has recently experienced a rare continuous net outflow for two weeks, with a total of approximately $2.35 billion according to a single source. Over the last week, the net outflow was about $1.07 billion, and the week before was about $1.28 billion. On one particular Friday, the single-day net outflow reached approximately $185.4 million, with BlackRock's IBIT at about $143.5 million and FBTC at about $41.9 million, indicating a shift from continuous absorption to concentrated outflows for the leading products. Meanwhile, institutional investor Strategy holds approximately 850,364 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of around $75,456 each. When the price fell below about $67,000, the account showed an unrealized loss of about $7.7 billion. The tension between the holding cost and the current price has been further amplified. On the on-chain side, data from Glassnode and ChainQuery shows that about 7.12 million Bitcoins' public keys have been made public on-chain, accounting for roughly 35% of the circulating supply. Glassnode's reported 35.4% is the highest value recorded in its statistics, and this proportion has steadily increased from about 24.8% at the beginning of 2021 to about 30%-31% in mid-2026, before spiking again. Potential technical risk indicators related to quantum attacks are also heating up. Overall, without multi-source cross-validation data constraints so far, the ETF net outflow, continuous losses from IBIT, deep unrealized losses from Strategy, and record highs in public key exposure all point to the same conclusion: institutional demand is cooling off, and the narrative of on-chain technical risks is fermenting together. The Bitcoin market is undergoing a stress test phase regarding capital, holdings, and underlying security.
Two Weeks of Net Outflow of $2.35 Billion: Spot ETF Collective Withdrawal
From the funding perspective, the most direct manifestation of this round of stress testing is the continuous net outflow from US spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to data compiled by AiCoin from a single source, these products have seen a cumulative net outflow of approximately $2.35 billion over the past two weeks, with about $1.28 billion in the previous week and approximately $1.07 billion in the most recent week, showing a rhythm of "peak retreat but still continuing." The net outflow is not driven by a single extreme trading day, but rather form an interval effect accumulated over multiple days: on a certain Friday, the single-day net outflow was about $185.4 million, of which IBIT was around $143.5 million and FBTC was about $41.9 million. The leading products simultaneously reduced their holdings on the same day, making it a representative period of the two-week withdrawal.
From a signaling perspective, the two-week consecutive net outflow has shifted the heat of institutions using spot ETFs to allocate Bitcoin from "marginal increase" back to "periodic cooling." However, the available public data is insufficient to support this as a trend reversal. Firstly, the net outflow amount concentrated in the last two weeks seems more like a passive response to a certain market situation or expected change, rather than a systematic exit from long-term allocation logic; secondly, aside from common factors such as price corrections, quarterly/half-year asset rebalancing, regulatory and macro uncertainties, there is currently insufficient evidence pointing to a single main cause. Considering the scale of the two-week $2.35 billion and the continuity of daily data, a more reasonable judgment is that the funds in spot ETFs are experiencing a phase of withdrawal that has not been fully explained, rather than an ultimate denial of institutional exposure to spot Bitcoin.
IBIT Continuous Losses for 11 Days: Leading Products Shift to Reduction Signals
Within the total of about $2.35 billion net outflow over the two weeks, BlackRock's IBIT is viewed by a single source as one of the current "main products." According to publicly sourced data compiled by that source, IBIT has recorded net outflows for 11 consecutive trading days, breaking the previous norm of US spot Bitcoin ETFs predominantly showing net inflows. At a certain Friday's concentration outflow point, the overall net outflow for ETFs that day was about $185.4 million, with IBIT alone accounting for about $143.5 million, which constitutes the vast majority. During the same period, FBTC recorded a net outflow of about $41.9 million, and the two products almost comprised the main outflow subjects of that day, clearly signaling a shift from "continuous absorption" to "simultaneous reduction" for leading products.
This continuous net outflow represented by IBIT does not necessarily point to a single motivation, but in terms of timeline, it indeed drives the market to adjust expectations regarding the "long-term accumulation of spot ETFs with only inflows." Previous configuration assumptions implied a long-term linear increase in the main products, while the 11-day continuous losses combined with the total withdrawal over two weeks indicate that even within the perceived framework of a long-term allocation tool, institutions will reduce positions or halt accumulations periodically in response to price, macroeconomic, and regulatory changes. A more prudent understanding is that the funding paths of IBIT and other leading products are shifting from unidirectional inflows to more cyclic, bidirectional adjustments. The existence of spot ETFs lowers entry and exit friction but does not eliminate the volatility and rebalancing logic of spot Bitcoin exposure itself.
Deep Unrealized Losses for Strategy
According to a single public source and media reports based on public disclosures, Strategy currently holds approximately 850,364 Bitcoins, with an average purchase price of about $75,456 each, making it one of the largest heavy positions among all publicly reported institutional holdings. This holding structure means its exposure is almost entirely bound to the spot Bitcoin price. When the price fell below about $67,000, the market value of the holdings based on disclosed scale showed an unrealized loss of about $7.7 billion compared to the purchase cost. The floating loss figure has also been clearly marked by media as based on calculations of holdings and price levels, rather than actively disclosed by institutions. These figures are sourced from a single public source and have not yet undergone multi-source data cross-validation; thus, caution is needed in interpretation.
From a risk exposure perspective, these heavily weighted institutions are far more sensitive to price corrections in terms of realized or unrealized gains and losses compared to diversified passive products. Roughly estimating the current scale of Strategy, for every $1,000 drop in Bitcoin, the change in the value of its holdings approaches nearly a billion dollars. During the recent correction period, mere price fluctuations could generate unrealized gains and losses in the range of several billion dollars. For institutions viewing Bitcoin as a long-term strategic asset, these floating losses resemble a concentrated reflection of periodic market value volatility; however, occurring concurrently with the ongoing reduction in spot ETF values and rising technical risk indicators related to quantum attacks, the price exposure of heavy positions is being magnified into a distinct and highly volatile risk curve.
Public Key Exposure Reaches 35% New High: Quantum Attack Risks Amplified
Beyond funding and price exposures, the underlying security parameters of Bitcoin are also undergoing slow but directionally clear changes. The so-called "public key exposure ratio" refers to the Bitcoins that have had their corresponding public keys made publicly visible on-chain, compared to balances still residing at the address hash level. Theoretically, when quantum computing capabilities significantly increase in the future, this portion of assets would be at a higher potential risk of attack. According to data compiled by AiCoin, Glassnode currently reports that approximately 7.12 million Bitcoins' public keys are visible on-chain, accounting for about 35.4% of the issued supply; this ratio is now at the highest level in its statistical series (according to a single source).
From a temporal perspective, this ratio displays a slow but continuous upward trajectory: starting at about 24.8% in early 2021, it has risen to about 30.2% (approximately 6.04 million Bitcoins) by May 2026, and further to about 31.2% in October 2026 (according to a single source). The latest interval has jumped to 35.4%, indicating that more historical addresses have exposed public keys due to spending or script structure factors. The ratio calculated independently by ChainQuery is approximately around 35%, consistent in direction with Glassnode's data, providing cross-validation for this rising technical risk indicator (according to a single source). It is crucial to emphasize that these metrics reflect the long-term vulnerabilities in cryptographic defenses under the quantum hypothesis, rather than being direct determinants of recent prices or market conditions. In the current environment of overlapping triple pressures, it serves more as a reminder to the market that the technical security boundaries of Bitcoin are also undergoing a slow but certain stress test.
Bitcoin Under Triple Pressure: How Institutions and On-Chain Respond
With a cumulative net outflow of approximately $2.35 billion from ETFs over two consecutive weeks, leading products like IBIT shifting to reduction, along with Strategy experiencing about $7.7 billion in unrealized losses near $67,000, and the quantum risk indicators with approximately 35% exposed public keys rising to about 7.12 million Bitcoins, the funding layer, heavy holding layer, and technology security layer are all simultaneously undergoing stress testing (according to a single source). These signals may weaken the willingness of some marginal institutions for mid- to long-term allocations, prompting custody and risk control teams to enhance their tolerance for price corrections and paper fluctuations. It also challenges the narrative that "the technical security boundaries of Bitcoin are long-term solid." However, currently, there is a lack of multi-source data and consensus on the timeline for quantum attack risks, and the effects on trends and structures remain highly uncertain. Future variables to monitor closely include: whether ETFs will transition from periodic net outflows back to continuous net inflows, whether heavy addresses like Strategy will disclose new allocation and risk management strategies, and whether the public key exposure ratios tracked by Glassnode and ChainQuery will continue to rise, along with whether supporting cryptographic protections and address management technologies can effectively reduce these types of on-chain exposure risks.
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