On November 12, the price of Bitcoin briefly dropped to around $67,500, viewed by some as the lowest point in the past three months; shortly after, on November 13, it quickly dipped again during trading to about $67,568 before rebounding in a short time to the range of approximately $68,800–69,000. The 24-hour decline remained at around 6%–7.6%, reflecting severe fluctuations rather than a unilateral trend. According to AiCoin data, during the same time window, the total market witnessed about $1.62 billion in liquidations within 24 hours, with long positions accounting for about $1.46 billion, nearly 90%. Liquidations of Bitcoin long positions exceeded about $901 million, with approximately $560 million concentrated in a 4-hour burst. The total market capitalization of Bitcoin briefly fell below about $1.38 trillion, with leveraged longs becoming the main pressure point in this round of volatility. Almost simultaneously, it was revealed that Nakamoto, a treasury company holding Bitcoin, owed Kraken around 165 million USDT, with its stock market value at approximately $104 million, surpassing its debt scale, and extending the repayment deadline of 60 million USDT originally due on December 4 of this year to December 4, 2027, with approximately 105 million USDT loan terms yet to be publicly disclosed. Against the backdrop of sharp price drops and rebounds, concentrated long liquidations, and the extension of treasury debt, this round of adjustments appears to be revealing the fragile links of a tightened leverage chain, prompting the market to begin examining Bitcoin price volatility alongside structural risks like "Nakamoto debt" on the same risk map.
A Day of Turmoil: Bitcoin Falls Below Three-Month Low
According to AiCoin data, on November 12, Bitcoin briefly dipped to around $67,500, seen by the market as a low point in three months, and then within about a day, it experienced violent fluctuations around the range of $68,000–69,000. On November 13, during trading, BTC/USDT quickly dropped back near $69,000, briefly falling below $68,000 to about $67,568, then rebounding about 1.84% to around $68,800–69,000 within approximately 30 minutes. Throughout this sharp drop and rise, several platforms recorded 24-hour declines in the range of about 6.11%–7.6%, with Bitcoin's total market capitalization briefly falling below about $1.38 trillion, clearly indicating overall valuation pressure.
It is important to note that whether $67,500 is regarded as the "three-month low" or $67,568 as the intraday low both come from different data sources, and the specific statistical timing and quotation standards are not fully unified, making it impossible to provide a single accurate price and decline value. Therefore, a more reasonable approach is to judge the market in ranges: understanding this round's lows as around $67,500–67,568 and the rebound highs as about $68,800–69,000, while locking the daily decline within a variation range of about 6%–7.6%, thereby depicting the short-term selling pressure and valuation volatility Bitcoin encountered near the three-month low.
$1.6 Billion Liquidation Wave: Longs Concentrated Out
Within the rapidly switching price window between the low points of about $67,500–67,568 and the rebound range of $68,800–69,000, according to a single monitoring source, the total market's contract liquidation scale amounted to approximately $1.62 billion over the past 24 hours, with long positions liquidated at about $1.46 billion, accounting for nearly 90%. This structural distribution means that the current round of leverage unwinding is almost entirely pressured by the long side, with relatively few cases of shorts passively exiting, resembling more of a concentrated "squeeze" targeting high-leverage bullish positions rather than a balanced risk release.
Specifically for Bitcoin-related contracts, according to the same source, the liquidation amount for longs exceeded about $901 million, with approximately $560 million completed in 4 hours, concentrated in the period of sharp price drops followed by rebounds. This indicates that most of the liquidations on a single variety did not slowly accumulate throughout the day but instead erupted intensively during the most violent fluctuations, amplifying the feeling of volatility within the day. It is essential to emphasize that these liquidation statistics come from a single third-party monitoring channel, and the specific contract structures and trading platform distributions have not been disclosed in the existing materials, making it more suitable as a signal for observing long leverage congestion and risk concentration rather than being viewed as completely accurate accounts covering the entire market.
Nakamoto Debt Surpassing Market Value: Concerns
In the same context of concentrated long leverage unwinding, materials define Nakamoto as a "treasury company" centered on Bitcoin as its core asset, whose model is not merely holding self-owned Bitcoin but acquiring or holding Bitcoin by borrowing about 165 million USDT from Kraken. According to a single source, this total debt scale has already surpassed its approximately $104 million stock market value. Liabilities higher than market value mean that Nakamoto is structurally closer to a highly leveraged entity, and should a noticeable contraction occur on the asset side or if financing conditions tighten, the repayment pressure will first reflect in how to roll over or refinance this substantial borrowing denominated in USDT.
The recently signed loan amendment agreement extends the repayment deadline of 60 million USDT originally due on December 4 of this year to December 4, 2027, alleviating some short-term maturity pressure but also maintaining the total debt scale at a high level over a longer time dimension. More critically, the interest rates, collateral arrangements, and whether specific conditions exist to trigger margin calls or early repayments on the remaining approximately 105 million USDT loans have not been publicly disclosed. The opacity of terms itself is a type of uncertainty risk and can only be seen as a structural concern, rather than being directly extrapolated as the single cause of this round of Bitcoin price declines or the surge in liquidations.
Underestimation or Breakout: Divergence Among Analysts
Amidst the severe price fluctuations and uncertainties of debt, analysts have provided starkly different interpretations. According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Bitcoin is currently in a historically "extremely undervalued" range according to its valuation model, having only spent about 3.4% of the time in similar levels during prior complete cycles. A single source disclosed that he believes investors should not feel fear during these extreme undervaluation moments but rather view them as rare positioning opportunities, suggesting a "cautiously optimistic" interpretation of short-term price declines from a long-term valuation and cyclical perspective.
In contrast, trader Killa focuses more on the technical implications of the specific price range. He pointed out on social media that Bitcoin is testing key price levels close to the 2021 bull market highs, viewing this region as the current "last significant support." Within his framework, if this zone fails to stabilize effectively and prices continue to drop below, it could open up further downside space and refresh recent lows. Media flash reports also suggest significant recent volatility and advise investors to maintain risk control. The two perspectives of valuation models and key price levels reflect the market's emotional split and strategic divergence between "whether to buy the dip" and "whether to continue defensively." It is important to emphasize that these judgments represent different participants' viewpoints based on their respective risk preferences, rather than definitive predictions about future trends; their validity still needs to be validated and adjusted through subsequent price performance and market data evolution.
After Tightening Leverage Chains, What Signals Should Bitcoin Watch?
According to AiCoin data, this round of price rapid declines refreshing stage lows, with total market capitalization briefly falling below approximately $1.38 trillion, alongside about $1.62 billion in large-scale liquidations concentrated on the long side, with Bitcoin longs liquidated approximately $560 million in a short time, all pointing to a contraction in risk preference and a rapidly tightened leverage chain. Concurrently, Nakamoto’s debt of about 165 million USDT exceeding the approximately $104 million market value, forced to extend the repayment deadline of 60 million USDT to 2027, exposes the cash flow and repayment fragility of the "borrowing and hoarding" model under price pressure. It's important to clarify that the existing materials do not provide a single macro or news trigger for this severe volatility, nor do they confirm a direct causal relationship between corporate debt events and price trends; a more reasonable understanding is that they are presented as parallel risk signals in the same environment rather than a verified causal chain. Within this framework, subsequent observations can focus on three key variables: first, the price performance of Bitcoin near the current key support zone, whether that support is effectively held or repeatedly tested; second, the evolution of overall leverage usage levels, looking for further concentrated liquidations or obvious active deleveraging; third, whether holding companies like Nakamoto continue to experience adjustments in debt terms, refinancing, or new risk exposures. Together, these form the core reference for judging whether this round of "de-leveraging" pressure has been released and whether market risk preferences have the conditions to gradually restore.
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