Last week I thought Bitcoin could still grind within the range. However, the market didn't take that path; it couldn't hold around $80,000 and hit a low of $72,668 during the day. By November 12 at 15:00, the price had returned to $73,480, which is still a drop of about 8.7% compared to $80,509 during last week's live broadcast. This week, the largest single-hour drop was 2.86%, while the largest single-hour gain was only 0.94%. As the price approached the previous low, I was more interested in seeing one thing: who is leaving and who hasn't moved yet?

The price has dropped, so why did positions increase?

Looking at the open interest in Hyperliquid expressed in BTC, last week there were about 38,481 coins, which increased to 39,874 coins this week, a rise of approximately 3.6%. In terms of dollars, it decreased from about 3.1 billion to 2.93 billion. Both sets of numbers describe the same thing: although the price dropped, the dollar value of positions shrank, but there are still more positions measured in BTC on the market. To clarify which side the new positions lean towards, we must examine the funding rates and actual transactions.

From November 5 noon to 14:00 on the 12th, among the 171 hourly observation values, only 1 was negative, and 145 were around 0.01%, calculated on an 8-hour equivalent basis. Towards the end, the rate dropped to about +0.004%, and bulls were still paying bears. Next, I will look at the rates and liquidations together. If the rates continue to turn negative and we see the long positions concentrated in liquidation, that change would warrant a closer look. Just observing a single rate curve makes it hard to say that a bottom has been reached.

There are buyers below $73,500, but what happens after buying?

This time, I selected 250 addresses from Hyperliquid. All had a historical profit of over $1 million, profits over the past 30 days, and account funds exceeding $500,000. After filtering out high-frequency addresses that turned over more than 20 times their principal in nearly 30 days, as of November 12 at 15:00, 66 of them held BTC positions, with 42 short and 24 long. Last week, those numbers were 45 short and 25 long. This week, 55 addresses made trades, totaling about $190 million, split into 10,713 transactions. This is the sample we are tracking this time.

From November 9 to 12, below $73,500, the sample opened long positions of about $8.6 million and short positions of about $5.9 million. At first glance, it seems lively, but among the top 8 addresses that bought in low, 6 have already closed their relevant positions. The address that bought the most, around $73,492, held 84.8 BTC, later selling it in 9 transactions. Even the address that bought the most has exited; this wave of buying looks more like a short rebound.

Returning the time to the candlestick chart is more intuitive. At 23:00 on November 9, the sample had a net selling of about $17.4 million, including a 200 BTC short position opened at $75,300, after which $75,000 was breached. By midnight on November 12, the sample had a net buying of approximately $9.6 million, with the price rebounding from about $73,000 to $74,778, but in the next hour, it again net sold about $5.1 million. When combining both segments of the market, the selling pressure keeps coming, while the buying pressure is quick to arrive and cashes out decisively. Relying solely on this wave of support, it would be difficult to stabilize the market.

Large short positions are still there; focus on net positions

The two largest short addresses in the sample hold approximately 2,325 and 2,020 BTC in short positions, for a total nominal value of about $320 million, with average prices of about $76,383 and $77,924, both using 5x leverage. In the snapshot of the lesson, their combined unrealized profit is about $15 million. One address has not moved for a week, while the other has made 3,613 small transactions totaling about $5.1 million, with little change in net positions. Additionally, one address closed about $15.5 million in long positions and now has no BTC positions left. The transaction records are dizzying; examining the net positions back and forth reveals who truly exited.

Flipping through the position leaderboard again, the largest long position in the sample is about 161 BTC, and the largest short position is about 2,325 BTC. All five short addresses are in unrealized profit, while only one of the top four long addresses has an unrealized profit. Both sides are reducing positions this week, with bulls exiting faster proportionally.

Typically, I screen long and short positions in AiCoin's on-chain holdings, adding addresses I want to track to the candlestick chart and setting alerts. Upon receiving a notification, I cross-check the net positions and verify whether there are corresponding liquidation records. Many long positions in the sample this week were actively closed. Noticing the price dropping, if we categorize these closures as liquidations, we would misinterpret how this batch of funds is moving.

Between $73,400 and $73,600, let's see who moves first

In the market snapshot during the live broadcast, around $73,400 there is about $25.8 million in buy orders, and around $73,600 there are also about $25.8 million in sell orders. Lower down, buy orders at $73,300 and $72,600 are approximately $21.2 million and $28.3 million, respectively. Higher up, sell orders at $74,200 and $74,700 are around $19.9 million and $26.3 million. Don't be fooled by the thickness of the walls thinking they can definitely block price movement. Last week, the roughly $44 million order around $79,700 was later withdrawn. When the price approaches these levels, I will check whether this order was filled or whether it was removed by the order itself.

There are also some changes in the market. During the live broadcast, the speed of decline has slowed down, with RSI nearing the oversold zone, and the 15-minute MA120 around $73,904. The MACD is still in a death cross state. I also reviewed a segment from 2023 when the price quickly pulled back after breaching a previous low, comparing it to a possible correction this time. To truly assess which path it will take, I will revisit the order book, funding rates, and positions. The following three scenarios each have their own triggering conditions.

- Rebound and recovery. First, see if the sell orders at $73,600 and then at $74,700 can be absorbed. If funding rates turn negative while also seeing short positions actually covering and major sample addresses reducing short positions by over 10%, we then look at around $76,400, which is one of the large short position cost zones.

- Range bottoming. The price bounces between $72,700 and $74,200, with reduced volume and funding rates close to zero, while the sample addresses also slow down. This kind of market tests patience, and I will wait for the price to really break out of the range before checking if there are accompanying transactions.

- Second bottom test. If the price breaches the previous low of $72,668 and the buy wall at $72,600 is removed, while also seeing new short positions entering, pay attention to the levels around $71,700 and $70,500.

This week, I observed that someone was buying at low levels, but most had bought and then left, while two large short positions are still in place. The next time the price encounters these positions, I will look at whether the orders were actually filled, and also observe how much buying pressure follows the rebound and whether there are substantial changes in large positions.

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