The reason for today's AI stock sell-off:

The Democratic Party winning both the House and Senate was expected, but the simultaneous losses in Texas for both the senator and governor were unexpected, so additional risk pricing is necessary.

The Democratic takeover will have a significant negative impact on the construction of AI data centers. Approval for new data centers is harder, and the risk of delays in those under construction is greater. Today, the sector with the largest decline in AI-related stocks is power, such as $VST $VRT $BE; existing contracts have already been priced in, and delays in data center approvals mean that new contracts will become fewer or slower, prompting the market to price in a slowdown in growth. Other AI hardware sectors, such as optical communications, GPU, and CPU, are similarly affected.

The Neocloud sector has plans for a large number of newly planned data centers, which are now facing delays. Their existing computing power scale is still too small to provide sufficient revenue, including $SPCX, where Musk plans to add 10GW of computing power next year; if they can achieve one-third of that, it will be a blessing.

The risk of slowdown in data centers is actually good news for hyperscalers that already have large-scale online computing power, such as $GOOG $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL, which have enough scaled computing operations online. If the addition of computing power slows down while demand for computing power remains unchanged, then GPU rental prices will continue to rise next year. These hyperscalers will benefit, while large-scale expansion plans may hit the brakes, providing some relief from cash flow pressure. The market is currently more concerned about punishing cash flow negative companies rather than future revenue growth.

Will data center construction completely stall after the Democratic takeover? It will slow down but is unlikely to come to a complete halt. This year, the growth of the U.S. GDP has relied almost entirely on data center construction; if construction stops, an economic recession is unavoidable. Moreover, the newly elected governors still need investments and tax revenue. Therefore, I believe it will slow down, but it will not come to a complete stop. Strong hyperscalers may increase their global footprint to diversify political risk. Furthermore, data center operators like Nebius, headquartered in the Netherlands with many projects in Europe, may find more room for survival.

Today is an AI sell-off; it should be the last drop. The timing is just right. Don't fall before dawn.

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