In the past week, the behavior of short-term Bitcoin holders on-chain has shown a clear turning point. CryptoQuant data indicates that the "Net Profit of Short-term Holders" metric was +10,400 BTC a week ago, representing that the chips transferred to exchanges at that time were mainly sold for profit; however, by October 26, the metric dropped to -23,100 BTC. Although it slightly narrowed to -18,600 BTC on October 27, it remains significantly in the negative range, indicating that the volume transferred during this stage at a loss is far greater than that at a profit. This metric essentially measures the net difference between the chips transferred to exchanges at a loss and at a profit by short-term holders. A sustained negative value is generally seen as an on-chain signal of pressure or panic selling among short-term holders; the research report also points out that the overall cost basis for short-term holders is now above the current market price, indicating that the market is in a sell-off phase driven by losses. Deep Tide TechFlow adds that on October 27, only about 16% of the inflow related to short-term holders to exchanges came from profitable positions (single source), further confirming that the inflow structure is dominated by loss-heavy chips. Under the interpretation of CryptoQuant analysts Axel Adler Jr. and others, this metric transitioned from positive to negative and amplified to the level of thousands in just one week, reflecting a swift shift in sentiment from profit-taking to loss-exit. Whether the short-term selling pressure will be amplified as a result becomes a key observational variable for the subsequent evolution of the market.

A Week of Reversal: From +10.4k to -18.6k

The so-called "Net Profit of Short-term Holders" essentially captures the net difference between chips at a loss and chips at a profit when short-term holders transfer BTC to exchanges: a positive value means more profitable positions are flowing in; a negative value indicates that loss-heavy chips dominate the inflow, serving as a straightforward on-chain thermometer reflecting whether short-term holdings are "selling for profit" or "selling at a loss."

A week ago, this metric was still +10,400 BTC, corresponding to short-term holders choosing a more aggressive profit-taking strategy within profit areas; however, by October 27, 2026, this value had dropped to -18,600 BTC, with a peak negative volatility of -23,100 BTC on October 26. This indicates that within just a few days, inflows at profit were completely reversed and amplified by those at a loss. The research report notes that this transition from positive to negative, maintaining a negative level in the thousands, signals that the overall cost basis for short-term holders is now above the current price range, changing the motivation for selling from locking in profits to stopping losses. The current market’s selling pressure is mainly driven by the passive release of loss positions.

Extreme Value Plunge: The Panic Day of -23.1k

If the net profit metric dipped below zero from +10.4k is seen as the starting point of an emotional reversal, then the -23,100 BTC reached on October 26 represents the panic peak of this wave of short-term chip exit. According to CryptoQuant data, this is the lowest level observed at the current stage, meaning that within 24 hours, chips transferred to exchanges while in a loss state have created a net advantage of over 23,100 BTC over those transferred at a profit. The research report describes this period as an on-chain trajectory of panic selling among short-term holders: the deeper the negative value, the more out-of-control the sentiment among loss positions, transitioning motivators for selling from rational repositioning to emotional stop-loss exits.

After reaching the extreme value, the net profit metric for short-term holders did not continue to plunge uncontrollably but rebounded to -18,600 BTC on October 27, indicating that the most concentrated panic selling has been released in the short term. However, the inflow of loss-heavy chips still clearly outweighs that of profitable chips, and the selling pressure has merely transitioned from the "extreme release" stage to a "continuously high-pressure" state. Combined with the judgment in the research report that "the overall cost basis for short-term holders is higher than the market price," this process of recovery from -23,100 to -18,600 seems more like a transition from extreme panic to persistently high emotional pressure, suggesting that market sentiment has not truly escaped the high-pressure range.

Profits Reduced to 16%: Exchanges Become Loss Exits

Looking down this high-pressure chain, the statistics from Deep Tide TechFlow provide a more impactful perspective: on October 27, only about 16% of the BTC moved to exchanges by short-term holders came from chips in "profitable periods." In other words, nearly four-fifths of the short-term chips that flowed into exchanges that day were transferred while in a floating loss state. This corroborates the -18,600 BTC net profit metric recorded by CryptoQuant—on the surface, net profit turns negative, but structurally, the inflow accounting towards exchanges has completely shifted from "locking in profits" to "realizing losses to exit."

Structurally, the profit share compressed to about 16% means that exchanges currently resemble a "stop-loss exit" for short-term holders rather than a traditional profit-taking window: the proportion actively cashing out profits has sharply declined, with more passive selling and cut-loss migrations occurring once the price drops below the cost basis. This aligns with the research report's assessment that "the overall cost basis for short-term holders is higher than the market price," but it should be emphasized that the above 16% data comes from a single source; definitional and measurement biases may lead to statistical discrepancies, and cannot be seen as a high-confidence independent conclusion, only serving as a supplementary evidence of the current selling pressure structure, in tandem with the net profit metric pointing towards "loss dominant inflow."

Are Short-term Chips Being Forced Out? Path of Deteriorating Sentiment

From a temporal perspective, a week ago, the net profit of short-term holders was still +10.4k BTC, with chips transferring to exchanges primarily from profitable positions, closer to a conventional profit-taking rhythm. In the following days, this metric continued to weaken and fell into negative territory, until it touched -23,100 BTC on October 26; although it rebounded to -18,600 BTC on October 27, it still indicates that loss inflows are significantly dominant. Coupled with the research report's judgement that "the overall cost basis for short-term holders is higher than the market price," we can infer that this isn't a simple emotional fluctuation but a stage where short-term chips are passively switching from "realizing profits" to "locking in losses" after the price fell below concentrated cost bases.

When the majority of short-term holders' costs are pressed above the current price, any downward movement will simultaneously amplify the volume of the floating loss group, triggering more passive selling that accepts losses as long as they can sell. This is vividly reflected in the net profit metric shifting from +10.4k to a minimum of -23.1k. CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. interprets this negative range as a signal of pressure or even panic selling among short-term holders. However, it is also explicitly warned that this metric essentially portrays the current chip pressure and emotional state and cannot be extended as a predictive tool for the causative forecast of future price movements.

After Loss Selling Pressure, What Still Remains in the Market

From +10.4k a week ago to -23.1k on October 26, then slightly narrowing to -18.6k on October 27, the net profit metric for short-term holders depicts a clear trajectory: short-term chips have swiftly switched from "profit realization" to "loss exit," with exchanges becoming the primary outlet for this wave of loss chips. Deep Tide TechFlow reveals that on that day, only about 16% of the inflow from short-term holders remained in the profit range (and this data comes from a single source, with limited confidence), further confirming that the current inflow structure leans towards losses. For investors, what's more important moving forward isn't simply judging "whether the selling pressure has ended," but tracking three dimensions: first, whether the net profit metric continuously maintains within the negative range, indicating whether the pressure from loss sellers remains dominant; second, whether the absolute magnitude of the negative value is expanding or shrinking, which differentiates whether panic is escalating or pressure is easing; third, whether structural data such as "16% profit share" shows any recovery, suggesting that profit chips are again willing to realize at exchanges. It is crucial to repeatedly emphasize that this metric delineates the intensity of emotions and chip behaviors rather than being a causal variable for future price paths. Any position adjustments or directional judgments based on a single indicator must be regarded as high-risk decisions and should be cross-validated with other independent signals.

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