Good evening everyone, I am Xin Ya. Recently, I have been passively handling many things. After several adjustments, I quickly pulled out from my positions, and I still want to believe that the market is just a false alarm. Because there is a heavy sense of control in the market, the divergence between the highest point of Ethereum from 2780 to 2280 is five hundred points. Around 2380, there was a strong sell-off with increased volume, leading to a liquidation of 130 million dollars in long positions. After liquidating a batch, the market bounced back to the starting point within twelve hours, which itself indicates a problem. The subsequent pressure has clearly slowed down, indicating that the main players have an uncertain attitude towards the downside, otherwise the level of panic selling would be even worse.

In extreme situations, we cannot follow the conventional algorithms, otherwise we will be caught off guard by the main players. I still believe this is just marginal pressure, simply a washout and a shakeout, and if the purpose was to induce short positions, that goal has already been excessively achieved. Previously, I lamented the continual retreat of the bulls without any means of resistance. If the bulls themselves never considered a defense but were just waiting for the bears' energy to be released before quietly entering the market, then they truly managed to deceive everyone. Now we need to pay attention to divergence signals; the recent three bottoms on the four-hour level are 80500 on the 9th, 79800 on the 15th, and 79168 on the 24th.

On the 9th and 15th, the divergence signal appeared, and Bitcoin rebounded from 80500 to 84800. After forming a top divergence in one hour, it turned downward for a test. When comparing the bottoms of the 9th and 24th, there is still a clear bottom divergence signal. Looking at the period from October 19th to October 24th, there is a weak head and shoulders topping structure, with the neckline around 80500. When reaching this position, the MACD was close to the zero line, and the fast and slow lines crossed above the water on the four-hour chart. Currently, this is the third test after the evening of the 24th, and the market will make its choice. Structurally, Bitcoin has a maximum space of 2000 points below and a minimum space of 4000 points above. How to choose is up to personal interpretation.

From the 19th to the 24th, Ethereum's structure has not only a one-hour head and shoulders top structure but also a deformed version of a four-hour inclined shoulder top structure. Many people may be bearish purely because they see the market as too negative and are following the structure, while we subjectively follow the expectations of destruction.

For a short position, around 80200 can be bought, 79500 for additional buying, and 78800 for cutting losses.
Testing 82200 and 83200 in sequence for the double shoulders.
Buy Ethereum around 2320, add at 2280, and cut losses at 2250.
Sequentially test the neckline at 2360, right shoulder at 2405, and if strong, left shoulder at 2445.
Restoration and testing are a consensus between both parties, with a risk-reward ratio of only one to one.

Stay in sync and follow the public account: Xin Ya Diary

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