Finally walked out of the range, and happened to encounter Old Cui's day off. Luckily, in the evening, I secretly took a look at the market and added a short position; otherwise, I would have missed this wave of market movement. The volatility isn't too big, just touching the upper resistance of 85,000, and the downward speed is relatively fast, with not much information worth analyzing. From the current information, one is that Japan is keeping interest rates unchanged, and Europe is also waiting for the US interest rate hike signal, so no major changes will occur before that. The emergence of such news has a significant weight in trend judgment, meaning that the current market bets are on the US interest rate hike; as long as the US raises rates, others will follow suit. This rate hike can completely offset the return flow effect of the dollar, maximizing the protection of national assets. We are certainly an exception, calculated as a separate economy. Frankly speaking, the impact of the US rate hike on us is minimal, mainly due to tariff impacts and exchange rate adjustments.

Another piece of news is that the Chinese prosecution seeks to confiscate 61,800 bitcoins, involving a 5.7 billion dollars fraud case; Old Cui is not trying to educate everyone on legal matters. This case has been discussed by Old Cui before, the Tianjin Blue Sky Ge Rui case. It was led mainly by the UK, with a total value of over 61,800 bitcoins and other properties. According to the prosecution’s application materials, the raised funds exceeded 40.378 billion yuan, and the total losses for investors amounted to about 19.977 billion yuan. As of October 22, 2026, the UK High Court has made a key ruling: whether the victims can claim ownership of this batch of bitcoins needs to be judged according to Chinese law. This poses a legal obstacle for victims to retrieve assets, but the court has not yet made a final decision on who the bitcoins belong to. The issue that Old Cui is more concerned about is the subsequent final ownership, whether it will be settled in fiat currency or cryptocurrency. In fact, Old Cui is not concerned about who owns it, but rather about the cashing issue. Cashing out 61.8K bitcoins at once could at least significantly impact the current cryptocurrency market, potentially causing a drop of 10K points, and combined with previous seizures, the subsequent outflow might be hard to estimate.

Old Cui summarizes: This case has not yet touched upon the cashing issue; the legal basis will take at least six months to a year to yield results. By the time for cashing out, it will take at least a year; domestically, cryptocurrencies will definitely not be recognized, and the final return to victims will also be settled in CNY, which will throw the cashing challenge to the market. The burden of the results will certainly fall on us investors. At the same time, Old Cui adds, do not use crypto assets for illegal activities; such matters should not be consulted with Old Cui, including with platform parties. Old Cui will temporarily not have any business dealings with everyone; he will inform you when needed. As the old saying goes, technology is not guilty; it depends on who is using the technology. Investment is a personal option; confusion about direction can be discussed with Old Cui, but illegal activities are not something he is considering at the moment. As we get closer to the rate-setting meeting, the three major negative factors at the end of the year are: 1. Mid-term elections, 2. Rate-setting meeting, 3. Cashing out illegal assets (which establishes that there won’t be a bullish market trend by year-end). A reminder again, breaking through the range provides everyone an opportunity to lay out short positions; don’t miss it, as such opportunities will become rarer as we get closer. Perhaps we might see bitcoin above 80,000 this month; touching 80,000 next month will become a luxury. Trump is struggling to survive himself, and he cannot save the crypto market! You can also compare with the US stock market, both rising but bitcoin has no strength to stabilize.

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