The market trend, once again, aligns with our estimated direction. After reaching a high of 83157, it continues in a downward trend, fluctuating within a range, and only bounced back after forming a low at 81146. This range of fluctuation is expected to persist for some time. The current trend is gradually moving down until it breaks below the eighty thousand mark; it is highly likely that the final strike will be completed this week. The corrective pattern will change with the speeches from the monetary policy meeting. During this period, what everyone needs to do is to filter out external noise. Before a directional change occurs, we can only focus on learning. Yesterday, we finished discussing the judgment on linear levels; today we need to return to judgment based on news. BlackRock's ETF transferred 883 BTC and 29,000 ETH to Coinbase Prime, totaling approximately $143 million; Netanyahu has stated that he has ordered the overthrow of the Iranian regime, and Trump supports the complete elimination of the existential threat Iran poses to Israel, with military action being even more critical.

In making military judgments, do not just look at slogans, but rather at actions. As long as there is large-scale conflict, it will lead to a collapse in the market; maintaining the status quo will keep things unchanged. The only variable is the rise in energy prices, and in terms of energy judgment, there will be no downward trend in the next 2-3 years; everyone can rest assured, this could very well cover the entire rate hike cycle. The only country that can impact energy prices is Russia, which can only play a role in alleviation; for us, this is not positive news. The transmission of inflation is also not a good thing domestically. Many friends feel that the country is currently facing deflation; would it be better if inflation could be transmitted domestically? Lao Cui can answer everyone now: it definitely would not be, it would only get worse. The current balance domestically is that although it is not as easy to earn as before, the prices of essential goods are not high, and some prices are even getting cheaper, with a low cost of living (compared to abroad). The transmission of inflation will lead to a situation where you cannot earn and cannot afford.

Lao Cui summarizes: this is just Lao Cui's personal feeling. The current consumption level in the country needs to be improved; it is a matter of resolving the domestic demand issue. This has little impact on the cryptocurrency circle, and the country does not support the development of this business. For investments, it is an option, and recognizing the trend of CNY appreciation and USD depreciation corresponds to the appreciation of USD assets; this is a whole logic chain. The current financial market is also developing in this direction, and the Americans are thinking the same way, showcasing the final result of a weaker dollar. It is to tie all assets to the dollar, even if the currency is in a depreciated state, the market initiative is still in the hands of the Americans. The combination of the stablecoin bill and the clarity bill will expand the cryptocurrency market, and the reflection of value will need to be delayed; the historical peak period may be born during this time (this is the only hope).

Time is too long, and various variables will increase in the middle. Lao Cui's main concern is the instability of the American regime. Each president will have their own ideas; will the historical legacies of previous administrations be inherited? Especially with the leadership between different political parties, unstable factors will increase. This will also lead to continuous revisions in our judgment of outcomes. For example, at the beginning of the year, Lao Cui viewed the cryptocurrency circle through the lens of a rate-cutting cycle and felt that a new high point would emerge; however, what arrived was a rate-hiking cycle, with variables being the US-Iran conflict. Errors in prediction can cause a chain reaction; for instance, this year's increased contract operations are nearly all geared towards short positions, which can only be considered self-rescue; contracts cannot be bullish, and losses in spot trading must be recovered. If spot losses cannot be recovered, the next bull market will almost have nothing to do with Lao Cui. The stable profits from contracts at this stage are the profits for the next bull market. Do not underestimate such self-rescue measures; a bull market only needs to return to the starting point of spot trading. Lao Cui's profits from contracts are the tangible benefits that genuinely exist; afterward, you only need to find the position for spot profits to exit. The same applies to you; if the spot has already incurred losses, self-rescue measures must be implemented. As long as you engage with contracts, do not go long. Today's trend maintains yesterday's judgment, and the entry points will not change significantly. On the daily level, the bearish situation is stronger, and the repair force will not be too great, possibly leading to even lower positions.

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