The market has finally shown some positive signals, but this is not enough to prove that risk assets have emerged from the adjustment.

On October 20, China released its GDP data for the third quarter of 2026, with an economic year-on-year growth of 4.5%. Meanwhile, the previous trading day saw a rebound in the US stock market, with the Nasdaq index rising by 1.1%, and US stock index futures also showed signs of recovery, assisting risk assets like Bitcoin.

The improvement in macro data combined with the rebound of US tech stocks has brought a brief emotional repair to the market. However, whether this warm-up signifies that funds are re-entering or is merely a phase of rebound after previous sell-offs still requires more data verification.

GDP Rises, But Economic Pressure Has Not Disappeared

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China's GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year in the third quarter, higher than the 4.3% growth in the second quarter; the GDP growth for the first three quarters was 4.6% year-on-year.

From an industry perspective, the information transmission, software, and information technology services sectors grew by 10.4% in the first three quarters, while the manufacturing sector grew by 5.6%. However, the real estate industry saw a year-on-year decline of 0.2% in the first three quarters, indicating inconsistent recovery across different sectors.

The improvement in economic data helps alleviate market concerns regarding growth prospects, but data for a single quarter cannot directly determine the trend of global risk assets. For the cryptocurrency market, liquidity, the trend of the dollar, and expectations of US interest rates remain important variables.

US Stocks Rebound, Risk Appetite Shows Some Repair

On the previous trading day, US tech stocks performed relatively strongly, with the Nasdaq index rising by 1.1% and the S&P 500 index by 0.4%. The strength in chip stocks drove the market rebound, and US stock index futures continued some of the warm momentum thereafter.

Bitcoin also benefited from the improvement in risk appetite. On October 19, Bitcoin traded around $82,000, indicating that some risk assets experienced a rebound.

However, the market performance was not entirely consistent. On the 20th, several major Asian indices still showed declines, US bond yields remained high, and oil prices continued to be affected by geopolitical factors. The rebound in tech stocks did not eliminate market concerns about inflation, energy costs, and high valuations.

This means that the current situation is better understood as a repair in risk appetite rather than the market having fully re-entered a phase of overall upward movement.

Next, the Key is Whether Funds Will Follow Up

For the cryptocurrency market, improvements in macro data generally only provide support for the trading environment; whether a sustained market trend can be formed depends on whether actual funds will flow back in.

Three signals to pay attention to moving forward: first, whether the Bitcoin rebound can continue, rather than just briefly following US stock fluctuations; second, whether the flow of funds into spot ETFs can improve; third, whether US interest rate expectations and the dollar's trend will continue to pressure risk assets.

If price increases are accompanied by inflows of funds, the credibility of market recovery will be higher. Conversely, if prices rebound but funds remain cautious, the market may continue to stay in a range-bound oscillation.

Macro data has provided some breathing space, but what truly determines how far the market can go is still whether funds are willing to take on risks again.

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