Currently, the price of Bitcoin is around 81.8K. Last night, the market briefly surged to 83.1K, but was unable to maintain that level and quickly fell back below 82K due to selling pressure. There is a key signal here: while tech stocks rebounded, Bitcoin did not rise in tandem, showing a clear divergence between the two.

First, look at the contract long and short volumes. This round of rebound is essentially driven by short covering, with the strength of new longs being very weak. In the past 24 hours, the proportion of short liquidations was 71.7%, approximately 104 million USD in short positions were liquidated, compared to only 70.83 million in long liquidations. In simple terms, the price movement from 80.8K to 83.1K was pushed up by short position closures, not due to new funds actively entering the market to go long. Overall volume remains persistently low, and both longs and shorts lack the willingness to launch large-scale attacks.

Now, let’s look at on-chain and ETF data. The US spot Bitcoin ETF recorded a total net inflow of approximately 910 million on Thursday, but there is a warning signal: the BlackRock ETF associated address transferred 883 BTC and 28,900 ETH to Coinbase Prime, corresponding to a value of approximately 143 million USD, which is a signal of institutional funds transferring out. The depth of buy and sell orders on the order book has clearly dried up. Medium-sized whale addresses holding 1000 to 10000 BTC have seen their net positions change almost to zero, entering a state of full wait-and-see. The proactive actions of whales to absorb positions have paused, and market sentiment has started to show signs of panic.

Technically, the daily level is converging to the end of a triangle, and the volatility has been compressed to the extreme, with a trend reversal window about to open. The BTC range is tightly stuck between 80.2K and 83.3K, with the oscillation space shrinking further.

Here’s my judgment: The daily convergence is nearing its end, and a trend reversal is approaching. ETF inflows are slowing down, spot buying pressure is weakening, and the rebound solely driven by short covering has poor sustainability. If the resistance at 83.3K cannot be consistently broken, the support at 80.2K will become very dangerous.

There is an important fundamental aspect here: a batch of new whales, which are addresses recently active holding more than 1000 BTC, have increased their market cap share from 18% at the beginning of the year to 33%, with an overall holding cost of around 77K. This batch of newly entered institutional funds is currently the core support at the 80K level. However, the support pressure is increasing; if ETF net inflows stop and spot demand continues to weaken, the 80K defense line will face greater tests.

Pay close attention to the following two scenarios: The first scenario is a volume breakout below 80.2K, with the next support at 79.8K, and in extreme cases, a retest of 77K, which is the cost range of these new whales. The second scenario is if a volume breakout stabilizes above 83.3K, then the entire structure needs to be reassessed.

Finally: The market is approaching a trend reversal, and volatility is about to increase, so be sure to manage positions and risk control properly.

WeChat Official Account: Big Bull Says Market

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