After reading Lao Cui's article, many friends have begun to wonder to what level will the market rise due to the unchanged interest rates in October? For the entire month of October, the high risk exists only around the holiday and the unchanged interest rates. Coincidentally, these correspond to the beginning and end of the month. It is not wise to hope for a bullish reversal because of the unchanged interest rates, as there will be even more intense midterm elections from late October to early November. Just after the interest rate meeting, we are directly facing the midterm elections, and Lao Cui's viewpoint is shared by others. Reuters: If the Democrats win the midterm elections, Wall Street and the cryptocurrency industry will face more regulatory scrutiny. The competition between parties may lead to any outcome; rapidly developing industries cannot withstand legal scrutiny, which carries a high risk coefficient. Combined with the end-of-year liquidation and the interest rate hike in December, even if there is no interest rate hike this October, the height will still be within a controllable range, and it might not even surge, making it better to short.

The closer we get to the interest rate meeting, the more intense the rhetoric will become. Just two days ago, two Federal Reserve officials made hawkish remarks, and today there are signs of cooling down; Federal Reserve official Williams said: There is currently no need to raise interest rates in 2027; Hassett: The Federal Reserve will control inflation rather than stifle the economy. Many friends may waver upon seeing such signals, and Lao Cui will tell everyone that they are speaking the truth. However, the positions are different; the hawks focus on inflation data, while the dovish side is concerned that financial data should not collapse. Both sides are firm in their positions, and the ensuing struggle will determine whether to maintain the 2% inflation target. Returning to this figure will certainly require sacrificing some industries. The dovish side fears sacrificing AI and technology sectors. For this year, there is nothing particularly noteworthy about the interest rate meeting, as it has become a foregone conclusion. Instead, the data post-interest rate hike will be worth paying attention to; if it remains above 3%, and the unemployment rate continues to converge with real data by the end of the year, interest rate hikes could very well follow in 2027.

Lao Cui summarizes: For spot market users, it might be better to shift the focus to next year's trends, as there is nothing to expect from this year; even if the interest rate hike in 2027 happens, half a year would suffice, with the second half likely bringing positive news from clear legislation. If the entire year remains in an interest rate hike state, the bull market might be pushed back again. Interest rate hikes are not frightening; what is frightening is the sacrifice of some real benefits for the AI industry. The crypto market will definitely again be the first market to be sacrificed. Regarding Lao Cui’s personal estimates, reaching this year's new highs will certainly be difficult compared to early positions, so Lao Cui's prediction for this year leans towards the conservative side, around 92000-97000 (it might not rise any further, after all, Lao Cui tends to favor a bearish trend). The hesitation comes from the fear of first cleaning the shorts; current short positions are a bit too heavy. Any liquidation will only reach this high point, and at the lower end, it is difficult to see others looking as low as they do; Lao Cui sees a maximum near sixty thousand, but exiting will depend on clearing positions around 65000-70000. Personally, I will not aim for the lowest point; it's not a lack of trust in myself, but the risks are too great. Lao Cui is uncertain whether a rebound after touching the low will afford the opportunity to exit. Such short positions, once unable to exit, may mean that the bull market will be out of reach. The exit point will be the position you lay out in the spot market or where you decide to go long. If you have operations, you can discuss with Lao Cui; perhaps making a profit will be easier.

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