The index measures how many coins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days, not how many sectors are rising. This week, these two things are in opposite directions.

Written by: Alice Liu, Head of Research at CoinMarketCap

Data as of October 12, 2026, 14:08 (China Standard Time, 06:08 UTC). All data in this article comes from CoinMarketCap; among which the Fear and Greed Index, Altcoin Season Index, Community Hot List, Narrative Rotation and Breakthrough Scanner are their own readings, which will not be annotated further in the text.

Bitcoin is priced at $83,815, up 1.02% in 24 hours, down 2.35% over seven days. The total market capitalization is $2.84 trillion, down 3.37% over seven days. The total market volume is $55.36 billion, up 26.86% from the previous day. Wednesday is the U.S. CPI for September. The altcoin season index today is 66, the highest in a year.

This number does not match its underlying market.

1. The year-high index, with a width of 23.1%

The altcoin season index measures how many of the top 100 have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. Today it is 66, yesterday it was 62, a week ago it was 63, and a month ago it was 39.

Of the 26 valid narrative categories, only 6 have risen in the past seven days, a width of 23.1%. The issue on September 27 had 24, at 92%. Just over two weeks, the number of rising categories has fallen to a quarter of what it was. The rotation state is marked as "concentrated in a few leading sectors."

The three leading categories show a fairly consistent direction. On-chain voting has risen 56.47% in seven days, cross-chain bridge tokens have risen 16.34%, and data availability has risen 13.02%.

The first place in on-chain voting needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Its component coins were not listed in the rotation index, and their scale cannot be verified, so I won't take it as the mainline of this week, just noting it down. The data availability category is the broadest of the three: Celestia is priced at $0.593, up 24.34% over seven days; Filecoin is priced at $1.243, up 17.31%, with a daily increase of 13.55% and a volume increase of 124%. In the same tier, Arweave is priced at $4.29, down 4.13%, not keeping up.

The three weakest are another category. Social has fallen 7.49% in seven days, Meme has fallen 6.60%, and the Solana ecosystem has fallen 6.44%. In the Meme category, DOGE has fallen 8.61%, SHIB has fallen 7.07%, and PEPE has fallen 3.53%. In the Solana category, SOL is priced at $112.63, down 6.66%, PUMP down 9.23%, BONK down 12.41%, and only JUP is up 8.58%.

The on-chain data and prices for the Solana category are aligned. Its DEX daily trading volume is $670 million, 60% lower than the 30-day baseline. Ethereum is $705 million, down 48%. Arbitrum is $95 million, down 28%. Three chains are all below the baseline.

The rising part is the infrastructure that moves assets from one chain to another. The falling part is the user-oriented themes from the summer.

Figure 1: The leading sectors are the infrastructure for asset transfer. The strongest and weakest narrative categories in the past seven days, in percentage points.

The AI sector, with four sub-categories, provides a corroborative insight. 51 tokens, average price up 8.5%, market value up 6.78%, trading volume increased 58%, leading among the four tracked sectors. But Bittensor is priced at $299, almost unchanged in seven days; Render is priced at $2.00, up 0.27%. The rise comes from mid to small-cap stocks, with large caps not participating.

Here I need to clarify a data point I discarded. The rotation index for the "Energy" category printed a 453,499% seven-day gain, with a market value of $57.6 million. With a $100 million threshold, it has been excluded from the 26 valid categories, so it won’t be used in this article. The percentage of small-cap categories at this magnitude does not indicate anything.

2. Only two names have crossed the outperform line; one has news and the other does not

The 24-hour average gain of the top 50 is +3.55%, with a median of +2.64% and a standard deviation of 3.42 points. The outperform line is drawn at +11.55%, which is the mean plus two standard deviations. Only two names have crossed this line, and none are below the lag line of -4.45%.

Internet Computer is priced at $3.448, up 13.09% in 24 hours, ranked 46th. NEAR is priced at $5.892, up 12.42%, ranked 16th. Below them are Zcash up 9.12%, Pump.fun up 8.59%, Ondo up 7.83%, Avalanche up 7.44%, Canton up 7.20%, and Ethena up 7.05%. The weakest in the top 50 is MemeCore, down 4.07%.

Figure 2: Two names crossing the outperform line. The top eight gains and their comparison with the mean and outperform line in the top 50, in percentage points.

The two crossing the line have different structures.

The Internet Computer side has verifiable elements. The DFINITY team's application for the ".icp" top-level domain passed the initial review by ICANN and entered the public notice stage; the team also announced that cloud engines are about to go live and issued coupons to early developers of agent infrastructure. Third-party reports also mention that network fees are at historically low levels. Buying pressure is on the spot market, while the perpetual side has not yet reached the thresholds to be considered a driving force. Trading volume increased by 130.2%. It only rose 4.88% in the past seven days; today’s change accounts for its entire week's performance.

On the NEAR side, nothing comparable can be found. According to tracking records, what is driving it are technical momentum and event exposure, not new news. It rose 17.19% in seven days, 150% in 30 days, and trading volume increased by 61.2%, making it one of five coins appearing simultaneously in trending charts and community concerns.

However, in the aligned window, NEAR's spot order flow shows a slight net sell-off, at $26.8 million. The recent movement has been driven by derivatives. The judgment still leans towards spot dominance but just barely.

In terms of durability, multiple independent high-signal accounts have indicated that it has broken through long-term resistance on a monthly basis, a new claim, not a recap of old statements. Meanwhile, the three-day heat map is biased toward the lower end: there are 288 million points around the $5.53 area, 6% below the current price, while above at only 2.4% there are only 73 million points.

A coin that rose 150% has strong liquidation fuel below it, four times that above. I cannot align these two facts into one direction. It might be short positioning at highs, or early long stops catching up. This week’s data doesn’t separate it.

3. A token ranked 149 rose 59%, and it is the only one in that category

Wormhole is priced at $0.0281, up 59.07% in 24 hours, ranked 149th, not in the top 50.

Looking back at its category makes it clearer. It is mapped to DeFi, where the median gain of peers over 24 hours is 1.09%, and down 1.22% over seven days. W achieved an excess return of 58 points for the day, and 93 points over seven days. This range is classified as a sustained outperform, not just a single-day peak.

Trading volume increased by 333%, equivalent to 169% of its market value. In a single day, its turnover surpassed its entire market capitalization, which is a reading typical of concentrated trading in small-cap coins.

The driving force is on the perpetual side. The spot order flow in the window is upward, while the futures order flow is downward. A combination pushed by derivatives and caught by spot profit-taking looks like this. The heaviest area on the three-day heat map is beneath the current price at 3.05%.

The second strongest narrative category this week is cross-chain bridge tokens, rising 16.34%. The components of this category include just W, which has risen 91.4% in seven days.

On the social side, there is a narrative framing this week as a rotation of cross-chain infrastructure. I disagree with this viewpoint. If only one coin is moving in a category, it is that coin that is moving. The real participation of multiple components is in the data availability category, but its rise is only 80% of that of cross-chain bridge tokens.

4. Deep market insights: 6 details

Positions, capital flows, and cross-asset data as of October 12, 06:08 UTC.

• Two sentiment indices are moving in opposite directions. The Fear and Greed Index is at 58, in the neutral zone, down from 67 a week ago and 68 a month ago. The yearly high was 82 on August 27. The altcoin season index rose from 63 to 66 in the same period. The former is driven by Bitcoin's momentum and volatility, while the latter counts how many of the top 100 have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. Sentiment has broken down on the pullback of Bitcoin and outflows from ETFs, while a small number of mid-cap coins continue to outperform it.
• The dominance rate has actually increased. Bitcoin's market cap share rose from 59.15% a week ago to 59.34%, happening on the same day the altcoin season index reached a new high for the year. Both occurrences can coexist because Ethereum's share fell from 11.33% to 11.01%. The winners of this altcoin season are NEAR, Internet Computer, Zcash, and a cross-chain bridge token, not Ethereum.
• The hottest category is falling. The most discussed community topic is Layer 1, with 38 independent authors, while this category fell 2.59% over seven days and only rose 1.67% that day. The fifth-ranking classification is digital asset regulation, down 2.84% over seven days, with components being a few mainstream coins. Attention remains on these mainstream assets, while the money has exited.
• Strategy repurchasing preferred stock has drawn more funds than buying Bitcoin. STRC preferred shares are priced at $99.66, a discount of 0.34% from par, within a normal range. MSTR has fallen 3.54% in the last five trading days, while Bitcoin has risen 0.64% in the same period. The buyback disclosed on September 28 to October 4 was the smallest of the year, while the funds spent on repurchasing preferred stock are several times more than those used to buy coins. This is their own disclosure, not our data.
• The price is still in the upper half of the 30-day range. Bitcoin's 30-day range is $74,945 to $87,364, with the current price at the 71st percentile, 4.06% away from the high. The 14-day RSI is 54. Compared to the October 1 data, it has only risen 0.4%. In eleven days, it has experienced a return trip, while the altcoin season index rose from 63 to 66 in the same period. The index measures relative performance, not absolute position.
• The disparity among stablecoins has widened slightly. The total amount of stablecoins on Ethereum is $147.1 billion, decreasing by 0.72% over 30 days. USDT holds 49.68%, USDC holds 30.65%, with a difference of 19.03 points between the two. The previous issue's difference was 18.59 points, and the one before that was 17.97 points. This widening has occurred over three consecutive periods, while the total amount has contracted during the same time.

Data Overview

Figure 3: Data overview. Major market movements, sentiment and rotation readings, ETF flow, derivatives positions, and a complete snapshot across assets for the day.

What to watch next (China Standard Time)

• October 14 (Wednesday): U.S. CPI for September. The market expects a year-on-year rate of 3.7%, up from 3.4% last month. This is the only macro event given in this issue brief and the first test of the week.
• On October 9, the Michigan Consumer Confidence Index was already announced at 46.3, expected 47.6, previous value 48.1. In the same survey, one-year inflation expectations are at 4.7%, and 5-10 years at 3.5%. In a week with CPI, these two expectation figures are more critical than the confidence reading of 46.3.
• Continuously monitor the pool below NEAR. At $5.53, there are 288 million points of strong liquidation fuel, four times that of the same distance above. The acceleration when a coin that has risen 150% starts to drop is here.
• Continuously monitor the trading volume of W. Today it approximates 169% of its market capitalization. Whether this level can be maintained for more than a day determines whether it is a round of market or just a single-day event.
• Continuously monitor the width itself. Currently, of the six categories that are rising, only the data availability category has multiple components moving together. A second such category needs to emerge for this round to be deemed a rotation.

Conclusion

The year-high is an index, while width has been halved; both statements are true. Supporting this assertion are two sets of readings: the altcoin season index at 66, compared to 39 a month ago; and of the 26 effective narrative categories, only 6 rose in the past seven days, while on September 27 there were 24. Once the number of rising categories returns to over a dozen, this statement will need to be rewritten.

The awarded direction itself has also changed. The leading three categories are on-chain voting, cross-chain bridges, and data availability, all of which are infrastructures for transporting assets and data. The three lagging categories are social, Meme, and the Solana ecosystem, all of which are summer-themed user-oriented topics.

As for why the dominance rate can reach a new high along with the altcoin season, the reason lies with Ethereum. Its share has dropped from 11.33% to 11.01%, and the money this round has bypassed it.

The altcoin season index measures how many coins have outperformed Bitcoin in the past 90 days. It does not measure whether these coins are still rising today. Today, only two have crossed the outperform line.