Comprehensive Judgment: Neutral to Bearish, Short-term Rebound Intensifies

Bitcoin (BTC) latest reference price is around $83,500–$84,000, having rebounded from last week's low of around $80,300.

Today's major change is: BTC's rebound continues, oil prices partially retreat, but the US dollar remains strong, and institutional ETF capital has not confirmed a return.

Currently, I believe BTC has entered an important phase of directional choice.

1. ETF: Last week net outflow of about $679 million

According to Farside Investors latest complete data:

October cumulative net outflow of approximately **$386.3M**.

Although there was a small net inflow restored on Friday, institutional capital has not yet returned significantly.

Today marks the start of a new trading week in the US, and as of this update, the October 12 ETF data has not produced complete results.

Tonight's observation: Whether the ETF can record net inflows for the second consecutive trading day.

If there is significant net inflow in IBIT and other major funds tonight, and BTC holds above $84K, it will be beneficial for the continued rebound. Farside Investors

2. Fed: High Probability of Pausing Rate Hikes in October

Latest interest rate expectations:

These probabilities will change with market trading.

The Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes show that most officials believe another rate hike may be necessary before the end of the year, but future decisions depend on economic data.

This means that the current market expectation is a pause in rate hikes rather than the beginning of rate cuts. Reuters

For BTC:

• CPI below expectations: The probability of a rate hike by the end of the year may decline, which is positive for BTC.

• CPI above expectations: The US dollar and Treasury yields may rise further, which is negative for BTC.

• CPI meets expectations: The market may continue to maintain volatility.

3. Strong Dollar Remains Major Pressure

As of October 12, the dollar index DXY is around 102.38.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond closed last Friday at around 5.24%, although it has pulled back from recent highs, it remains elevated.

Today the US bond market is closed for holidays, so intraday price changes should not be considered as a complete confirmation of normal trading days.

It is worth noting that the strong dollar and high bond yields still limit BTC's upward potential.

If DXY breaks above 102.8 and the 10-year yield rises again towards 5.3%–5.35%, BTC's rebound may face renewed pressure. The Wall Street Journal

4. Latest Geopolitical: Oil Prices Exhibit Two-Way Fluctuations

New energy market news has emerged today.

The United States announced arrangements involving Russian diesel supplies and stated that Russia and Ukraine may suspend attacks on energy facilities.

However, Ukraine has questioned whether the ceasefire is genuinely being implemented.

Meanwhile, there are still attack incidents in the Middle East, and the risk to oil supplies has not been fully alleviated.

As a result, Brent crude oil hit above $105 today before experiencing a pullback.

Judgment: Risks of energy inflation have eased somewhat, but it cannot be confirmed that the cooling is sustained. Reuters

If oil continues to decline, it would help mitigate inflation expectations; conversely, another sharp rise in oil prices will increase pressure on the Fed to maintain a tightening policy.

5. Crypto Market and Regulation

Today there is a noteworthy market structure change.

According to CoinDesk's report:

• The order book depth for BTC and ETH has recovered compared to the flash crash in October 2025.

• Recent leverage demand for BTC remains relatively weak.

• Some options traders are increasing downside protection.

• Small-cap tokens are performing better than BTC, but this does not indicate that BTC has entered an upward trend.

This indicates that there has not been a widespread chase for BTC in the market. CoinDesk

On the regulatory front, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) previously proposed a regulatory framework for crypto leverage trading, which is still the main progress recently.

This regulatory direction helps long-term institutionalization, but the framework has not yet been formally and fully implemented.

As of this search, no significant new regulatory news has been found that would independently change the overall trend of BTC. Reuters

6. Key BTC Prices and SMC Structure

These price levels are based on technical observation areas of recent trends and do not represent real-time order book positions.

Scenario A: BTC Breaks Above $84.5K

If it effectively breaks above $84.5K on the 1H chart and holds during a pullback, it may further test $85K–$85.5K.

Only if it can also regain stability above $85.5K on the 4H chart is there a stronger case for upgrading the current rebound to a structural strengthening.

Scenario B: BTC Faces Resistance at $84K–$84.5K

If the price quickly drops back after sweeping liquidity upward and appears to form a bearish MSS on the 15M or 1H chart, vigilance is needed for a rebound failure.

Focus anew on $82.5K and $82K below.

Scenario C: Testing $80K Again

If BTC drops below $82K and fails to reclaim, it may retest the low point around $80.3K.

If it effectively drops below $80K on the 4H chart, the next observation area will be $78K–$79K.

Currently, I am more inclined to see BTC first attempt to test the resistance at $84K–$84.5K before deciding whether it can further rebound.

7. Key Macro Events This Week

The following times are all in Malaysia time.

The release times for CPI, PPI, and import-export price data have been verified through the official calendar of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The most important event this week remains October 14 CPI.

Particularly, attention should be paid to whether the core CPI exceeds expectations, as well as how US Treasury yields and the dollar react after the data is released.

Final Conclusion

October 12 BTC Comprehensive Rating: Neutral to Bearish, Short-term Rebound Strength Improves.

Today's bullish factors mainly come from the repair of BTC prices and the easing of some supply risks in the energy market.

However, ETF saw a net outflow of about $679M last week, the US dollar remains strong, and the risk of a rate hike by the end of the year still exists.

Therefore, I will not temporarily define this rebound as the beginning of a new upward trend.

The three most important prices right now:

$84.5K: Short-term breakout confirmation.

$85.5K: Important position for structural strengthening on the 4H chart.

$82K: Key defense after a failed rebound.

Core View: BTC has a chance to continue rebounding in the short term, but the macro environment has not fully turned bullish. Before the CPI release, caution is still required against liquidity sweeps at both ends of the range.

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