In the current environment where cryptocurrency markets are under pressure, traditional investment banks have provided almost certain judgments on another track. On October 12, Amy Oldenburg, the head of digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley, publicly stated that by the 2030s, the market size for tokenizing real-world assets (RWA) on-chain will reach between $3 trillion and $10 trillion, describing this expectation's certainty as "undoubtedly." At the same event, she emphasized that institutional investors' attention and participation in this area continue to increase, and there is a notable fear of missing out (FOMO) sentiment emerging in the institutional market. This statement can also be seen as a high-level endorsement from a top global investment bank, rather than just an individual expressing interest in a new track. In contrast to this optimism, AiCoin data shows that even with Polygon recently burning about 100 million POL, approximately 1% of the initial supply, the price of POL still dropped from about $0.12 at the end of September to about $0.103 on October 12, indicating that the cryptocurrency market remains weak. The tension between institutional FOMO and low prices is opening up a new narrative space, and a key question emerges: Will RWA become the core storyline for the next round of institutional investment?
Wall Street investment banks speak up: A gamble of $3 trillion to $10 trillion
In a time when prices are generally under pressure, it is actually the leading investment banks on Wall Street that are betting on the next narrative phase. On October 12, Amy Oldenburg clearly provided a highly charged expectation: by the 2030s, the on-chain tokenization market for real-world assets will reach $3 trillion to $10 trillion, and she described this judgment as "undoubtedly." Rather than being a precise numerical prediction, it is more a range with a high degree of tolerance: from $3 trillion to $10 trillion allows for variations in regulatory pace, asset class expansion, and technological evolution. Yet, in scale, it has already locked RWA tokenization into a major narrative that spans multiple cycles and asset types, rather than being a marginal innovation attempting to gain traction.
The key point is that the voice behind this is not a market commentator but a senior executive responsible for digital asset strategy at Morgan Stanley. As one of the world's top investment banks, Morgan Stanley has a vast institutional client base and asset management portfolio. Such a role delivering judgments in public represents a systemic evaluation of crypto-native applications within traditional investment banks rather than an individual expressing casual interest. Oldenburg emphasized that the industry's growth momentum is mutually reinforcing, with increasing attention and participation from institutional investors, and a clear FOMO sentiment has appeared in the institutional market. This expression shifts the institutional approach towards RWA from "let’s understand the regulations first" to a mindset of "worried about not keeping up fast enough": when a global investment bank uses a range of $3 trillion to $10 trillion to place a bet and openly admits that FOMO exists, RWA tokenization is viewed as a strategic option that traditional capital cannot afford to miss in the next phase.
RWA tokenization on-chain: From bonds to asset shares
To understand why institutions are beginning to rush towards RWA, one must return to the on-chain path of tokenization itself: it is not about creating a completely new asset out of thin air but about mapping existing real-world bonds, receivables, real estate interests, fund shares, etc., onto the blockchain in a verifiable token or certificate form. In current practices, government bond tokens, on-chain fund shares, and asset-backed tokens have already become major forms, and these rights, initially recorded through paper contracts and custody systems, are now recorded as asset units that can be registered, transferred, and verified on-chain.
The blockchain plays a foundational role here: on one hand, it provides a publicly verifiable ledger, smart contract execution, and continuously auditable transaction records, allowing settlement and compliance processes to be partially automated and reducing time costs for manual reconciliation and batch clearing; on the other hand, once an asset is tokenized, it gains programmability, enabling pre-set rules for interest distribution, redemption upon maturity, fund dividends, and even governance voting in contracts. These tokens can then be integrated into existing DeFi protocols, governance systems, and cross-chain infrastructure, serving as a new generation of "on-chain collateral" and asset carriers. Morgan Stanley's bet on the range of $3 trillion to $10 trillion is precisely on this market that reconstructs real assets through on-chain carriers, rather than relying solely on cryptonative tokens to drive the market in the traditional sense.
A heated narrative at the freezing point of the market: POL's decline and institutional optimism
If we shift our perspective back to on-chain infrastructure, Polygon's token actions serve as a typical contrast. The project team recently proactively burned about 100 million POL, approximately 1% of the initial supply. In the traditional crypto context, this signals a clear "supply contraction," which theoretically helps alleviate selling pressure and improve the token narrative. However, according to AiCoin data, the price of POL fell from about $0.12 at the end of September to about $0.103 on October 12, and the anticipated price increase did not materialize after the burn, continuing its weak trend. This directly exposes the current low morale within the crypto market: a single public chain is finding it hard to reverse prices through supply management in the face of macro risks and narrative shifts.
In stark contrast to this on-chain price pressure is the high-profile optimism from traditional institutions like Morgan Stanley in the direction of RWA tokenization. Amy Oldenburg not only provided the prediction of $3 trillion to $10 trillion by the 2030s, emphasizing "undoubtedly," but also pointed out that there is a noticeable FOMO sentiment on the institutional side—however, this FOMO is more directed towards new application layers that "use on-chain tokens to carry real-world assets such as bonds, real estate, and fund shares," rather than supporting the valuation of a particular public chain's native token. The reality that Polygon is still left out in the cold after burning POL precisely illustrates that this current optimism is more about the structural opportunities within this new RWA narrative rather than a comprehensive expectation of restoring existing public chain token valuations.
Regulatory swings and asset allocation shifts: The European tax case and Goldman Sachs’ preferences
To realize the structural opportunity of "using on-chain tokens to carry real assets," institutions must first confront the reality of regulatory and asset allocation constraints. Recently, the French National Assembly’s Finance Committee voted 31 to 3 to reject the budget revenue section for 2027, which would have made the tax on crypto asset exits, taxation on certain crypto assets, and tax on fiat-pegged tokens ineffective; this vote directly pressed the pause button on the related tax system design and brought the fluctuations and uncertainties in Europe’s approach to crypto asset taxation and regulation to the forefront: The specifics of when provisions will be finalized and how they will land remain unresolved variables.
In this unclear environment, Goldman Sachs' response has not been to immediately increase exposure to on-chain assets but rather to press chips back to the area they are most familiar with—recently, they upgraded stocks to "overweight" for the next three months while raising their bond ratings to "overweight" for the next twelve months, signaling systematic optimism towards traditional equity and bond markets and clearly favoring AI-related stocks in their thematic selection, viewing new technologies as a priority direction for large-scale allocation within existing regulatory frameworks. When viewed in the same context: one side sees the French tax case stalled, reflecting that European crypto regulation has not been finalized; the other side sees Goldman Sachs increasing exposure to traditional assets and AI themes; and combined with Morgan Stanley's judgment that RWA tokenization will reach $3 trillion to $10 trillion by the 2030s "undoubtedly," regulatory swings, excessive allocations in traditional assets, and the RWA narrative are jointly shaping the allocation pattern of institutional attention and resources among different asset forms in the next phase.
From FOMO to realization: The test of landing before 2030
Against the backdrop of the French tax case being stalled, Goldman Sachs continuing to lean towards traditional assets and AI themes, and Polygon burning about 100 million POL but the token price remaining under pressure, Morgan Stanley's forecast of $3 trillion to $10 trillion seems more like formally pushing RWA tokenization into traditional institutions' main narrative rather than signaling that the transformation is complete. Amy Oldenburg locks the time window around 2030 but does not publicly reveal specific models or calculation paths, suggesting that it is currently a macro judgment based on trends and institutional experience, a layout for "early positioning." In the coming years, the true observation point will be whether large banks and asset management institutions will substantively advance on-chain RWA token issuance, custody, and secondary structural design utilizing proprietary or client assets; whether major jurisdictions like the US and Europe can transition from repeated tug-of-war to a relatively clear framework regarding crypto-related taxes and asset attributes; and whether multiple public chains and related protocols can maintain high availability of infrastructure operations over the long term. For individual and institutional investors, it is essential to differentiate between the "FOMO sentiment brought by high-level speech" and the "realized on-chain scale": in a stage where the market is weak and regulation is still being reshaped, RWA must overcome multiple hurdles, including technological integration, cross-border compliance, and the cultivation of genuine usage demands to reach trillion-dollar levels. What truly deserves tracking is which institutions can gradually realize these expectations into verifiable asset scales and operational records on-chain in an environment of regulatory swings and price pressures.
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