From the perspective of long-term trends, Q4 is still expected to maintain an upward trend.

Written by: Wenser (@wenser 2010), Planet Daily

Early this morning, BTC briefly fell below 81,000 USD to 80,400 USD, and then rebounded above 82,000 USD, currently reported around 82,500 USD; ETH briefly dropped to around 2,400 USD, currently reported below 2,500 USD. In the past 24 hours, approximately 180,000 people in the entire market faced liquidation, with a liquidation amount close to 1.1 billion USD, of which long positions accounted for about 935 million USD.

Recent reports from Glassnode indicate that the average trading volume for BTC spot and BTC ETF on exchanges over the past 7 days is approximately 6.8 billion USD, down about 90% since January 2024; as of October 5, the past 30 days have seen the cryptocurrency market realize a market capitalization of about 12.8 billion USD, while the buying scale of ETFs, stablecoins, and corporate reserves combined is only about 4.9 billion USD, with the remaining part coming from existing market funds being transferred at higher prices, indicating that the previous upward trend relied more on higher price buying.

On another front, the market's selling pressure has sharply increased: the U.S. government, mining pool leaders, BTC short-term holders, etc., are selling in their own ways, resulting in this rapid decline. However, from a long-term trend perspective, the Q4 market is still expected to maintain an upward trend.

Recent selling pressure representatives: U.S. government, mining pool leaders, BTC short-term holders

In the last 3 days, this round of decline, from the market data level, is mainly influenced by the following 3 major entities:

U.S. government: In the past 3 days, transferred over 1.54 billion USD worth of BTC to Coinbase, during which time BTC fell by 6.9%

According to monitoring by Lookonchain, the U.S. government deposited 17,733 BTC worth 1.48 billion USD into Coinbase Prime in the past 3 days; and also deposited 750 WBTC worth 62 million USD. During this period, the price of BTC fell by 6.9%.

Although due to Coinbase Prime’s combined custody and trading functions, the recent inflow by the U.S. government may not necessarily be fully sold; additionally, according to on-chain tracking by Galaxy Research, the U.S. government currently holds about 319,100 BTC, with approximately 71% sourced from BTC related to LuBian and funds recovered from Bitfinex; the BTC assets transferred in this instance are also considered to be seized assets by the U.S. government. However, the government's transfer actions inevitably caused some panic in the cryptocurrency market, leading to a sharp decline. Below is a corresponding operational time chart.

Mining pool leader Wang Chun: Sold over 19.3 million USD worth of WBTC during the decline, exchanged for over 7,848 ETH

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, the address of fish pool co-founder Wang Chun (0xF42...2b51) sold 235.5 WBTC worth 19.31 million USD on-chain after the BTC drop, obtaining 7,848.5 ETH. The ETH price was 2,460 USD, and the ETH/BTC exchange rate was 0.03.

Bitcoin short-term holders: Panic selling, selling pressure reaches a nearly 4-month high

Last night around 10 P.M., CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that short-term holders of Bitcoin (STH) showed obvious panic sentiment. In the past 24 hours, short-term holders transferred over 50,000 BTC to exchanges, with over 29,500 BTC transferred at a loss, accounting for about 59% of total inflows to BTC, marking the largest realization of losses by short-term holders in nearly 4 months.

Although at that time the price of BTC stabilized around 82,000 USD, it sharply dropped to around 80,500 USD later at night, indicating that the selling of short-term holders still has a certain lag effect on the market.

Overall market trend: In the price recovery period, long-term selling pressure significantly reduced, liquidation zones divided into 81,700, 75,000, and 60,000 USD three tiers

Despite the significant short-term selling pressure, from a mid to long-term perspective, BTC and the overall market are still in a price recovery period, with long-term selling pressure showing great improvement compared to before August.

Firstly, the aggressiveness of whale selling has slowed down.

On October 5, Glassnode officially stated that the trend of BTC whales net depositing Bitcoin into exchanges has stopped. This trend had continued for over three months since summer, lasting twice as long as other similar trends in 2023, and ended in late August, followed by continuous negative capital flow. In other words, the selling spree of BTC whales has come to an end, and long-term holders still choose to stand by time.

Secondly, BTC miners have stopped large-scale selling, and the source of selling pressure has significantly weakened.

Yesterday, CryptoQuant stated that Bitcoin miners have recently stopped large-scale selling. Since Bitcoin hit the low of 76,000 USD on August 21, miners' condition shifted from “extremely underpaid” to “fairly paid," and there has not been extreme outflow of miner funds.

CryptoQuant noted that miner selling pressure was a key supply source impacting Bitcoin prices during the bear market of 2026, and the current disappearance of this stable selling pressure may help alleviate market supply pressure.

Thirdly, BTC spot demand has significantly improved, and the market has passed the risk extreme.

Yesterday, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that recent Bitcoin market demand has significantly improved, especially with ongoing recovery of spot demand. Currently, total demand for Bitcoin has returned to positive, exceeding 14,000 BTC, while futures demand remained relatively stable, averaging around 32,000 BTC recently. Spot demand is currently about negative 17,000 BTC; although it remains in negative territory, it has improved significantly from negative 207,000 BTC on September 20.

He believes that as Bitcoin prices decline, market demand is gradually recovering, which is a positive market signal.

Finally, a market report released by Glassnode on October 7 indicated that based on a two-month strong liquidation heatmap (used to simulate the price levels at which leveraged futures positions would be liquidated), only about 17% of liquidation price levels were above the current price, and the support points near the BTC price expanded by about half within a week:

1. The nearest large-scale liquidation price range is just below the BTC price, between 81,700 USD and 83,300 USD;
2. The second liquidation point is around 75,000 USD;
3. The largest liquidation band is in the range of 60,000 to 63,000 USD.

If BTC prices further fall into these ranges, the forced liquidation of long positions may further exacerbate the market decline.

Market outlook: The bear market has not ended, the bull market landscape still lacks spot confirmation, traders are bullish on Q4 trends

Regarding the follow-up direction of the market, representative views are divided into the following 3 factions:

Firstly, a cautious view from traditional asset management giants.

On October 7, Chris Kuiper, the vice president of research at Fidelity Digital Assets, stated: “The bear market may not necessarily be over.” He believes that the rebound since August could either mark the beginning of a new round of rising or just a pullback within the bear market, “price increases do not guarantee the end of the bear market”; according to the four-year cycle projection, November is a key window to watch (the last bear market bottom was in November 2022), but he emphasized that historical cycles never replicate accurately. A more positive signal is that volatility rapidly expanded after being low from June to mid-August, resembling the patterns observed in past bear market endings, which may indicate that selling pressure is nearing exhaustion, while stablecoin transfers, RWA, and institutional participation continue to grow.

Additionally, investment bank TD Cowen recently raised its price forecast for Bitcoin, predicting that BTC will reach approximately 109,000 USD by the end of 2026 and climb to 280,000 USD by 2029.

Secondly, crypto analysts believe the bull market landscape still awaits confirmation from spot indicators.

On October 6, crypto analyst Darkfost noted that the Bitcoin bull market score index (Bull Score Index) is currently still in a clear bullish zone, with a score of 80/100, and several indicators continue to support BTC's upward momentum.

He pointed out that the only relatively lagging factor is spot demand. As observed earlier, the market's spot trading volume remains low, so there has not been a significant visible demand for spot buying at this stage. He believes that spot demand is the key missing factor in the current BTC market trend, and this aspect is often the last to form.

Thirdly, crypto traders are optimistic about Q4.

At the beginning of October, well-known trader Ansem stated that BTC, ETH, and SOL have all recently held at high range levels, with price trends relatively healthy. Although there has not yet been a large-scale liquidation trend, most market participants are still in erroneous positions, and there is expected to be further upward space in the future. He also noted that there may be a correction in October and an unwinding of open interest (OI), but the market is still in the early stages of a bull market, and the risk of chasing high leverage is considerable, while high conviction spot positions hold relative advantages.

Crypto trader Killa also posted yesterday that Bitcoin once again failed to break through 87,000 USD; previously established 10x long positions based on the expectation of breaking through the second peak at the breakeven point were stopped out. Since the breakout failed and the price returned to entry, he is currently focusing on the 80,000 to 82,000 USD range, considering re-establishing a 10x long position. Additionally, he claimed to still hold long positions at 62,600 USD and 76,400 USD and does not currently feel the need to hastily build new long positions, but remains bullish and expects prices to rise further, with the current trend belonging to a low cycle oscillation, while he mainly engages in high cycle trading and emphasizes the importance of risk management.

Of course, where there are bulls, there are also bears; the crypto market has never lacked counterparties and traders who flexibly adjust directions.

"Set ten major targets first": BTC will begin to reduce positions if it falls below 79,000 USD, and will liquidate all long positions if the daily close is below 78,000 USD

Whale "set ten major targets first" stated today that recently rising U.S. Treasury yields, reinforced rate hike expectations, and rising oil prices have concentrated negative macro factors, but BTC only corrected about 5%. Therefore, he believes that the current market is still in a relatively strong trend, and does not think BTC will directly fall to 78,000 USD or 74,000 USD. However, he also mentioned that he has set stop-loss conditions; if BTC falls below 79,000 USD, he will begin to reduce positions; if the daily close falls below 78,000 USD, he will liquidate all remaining long positions.

Yi Lihua: Inclined towards BTC falling below 79,000 USD, bullish on the market but will not short

Yi Lihua also stated today that Bitcoin has lost support at 82,000 USD, with the next support at 79,000 USD. However, judging by the speed of the decline in the past two days, the current correction is far from over, and he is more inclined to see a fall below 79,000 USD, after which he will look at the situation at 75,000 USD.

Additionally, he mentioned that he has consistently maintained that BTC will correct at the 86,000 USD level but will not short; because he believes it is still within a bull market trend, and corrections also belong to normal fluctuations within the bull market, adhering to the principle of "bull market looks for corrections but does not short," patiently waiting for the right moment to bottom fish.