The spot ETF data is warming up, and the macroeconomic headwinds are dissipating.

Written by: Ma He, Foresight News

On September 21, Bitcoin briefly surpassed $82,000, peaking at $82,100, achieving 5 consecutive daily increases, and has now retreated to around $81,000 for consolidation. Meanwhile, the enthusiastic performance of altcoins has rapidly warmed up the market. ETH broke through $2,700, ZEC surpassed $1,500, and NEAR soared to $4.35, nearly doubling within a week. Tokens like ENA and ZAMA also recorded good gains.

After a period of stagnation, is the cryptocurrency market about to provide a new direction?

Bitcoin Spot ETF Data Warms Up

Since experiencing continuous outflows since April this year, Bitcoin spot ETFs began to see large net inflows weekly starting in August. Three weeks recorded net inflows of nearly $1 billion, with a net inflow of $1.92 billion in the week of August 21, hitting a new high since October 2025.

In contrast, net outflows have not exceeded $500 million weekly since August for Bitcoin spot ETFs.

On September 20, Strategy founder Michael Saylor once again released information related to Bitcoin Tracker, stating, "A little more orange." Based on previous patterns, the orange dots represent Strategy's Bitcoin purchase records, which may indicate that the company will increase its BTC holdings. Strategy typically discloses Bitcoin holding changes the day after related news is released. According to the latest data, since the end of August this year, Strategy has repurchased approximately 3,000 BTC, bringing its Bitcoin holdings back to 845,050, valued at $6.876 billion.

On the Ethereum spot ETF front, it has also recorded significant net inflows, achieving positive inflows for three consecutive months since July, with $1.85 billion recorded in August alone, a new high since August 2025.

Bitmine, the largest institutional holder of ETH, is continuously buying. According to the latest data, its holdings have risen to 5.85 million ETH (accounting for 4.83% of the total supply), currently valued at $14.27 billion.

Macroeconomic Headwinds Easing

In September, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in three years. The cryptocurrency market fell before the rate increase, but began to slowly rise afterward. Additionally, the market currently only anticipates one more rate hike remaining for this year, with potential rate cuts to restart in 2027.

According to the latest data from Polymarket, the market is betting on a 55% probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. If another hike occurs in October, the market may expect the Fed to maintain its position thereafter.

The situation between the U.S. and Iran has also seen new developments.

On September 20, according to CCTV International News, on the evening of September 19, Mohsen Rezaei, Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, stated that Iran has laid out seven conditions required to initiate any negotiations with the U.S. government.

The message from Iran is clear: "If the U.S. wishes to extricate itself from the dilemma it has created and avoid sinking deeper, there is no alternative other than accepting Iran's conditions."

On September 20, U.S. President Trump stated that he might be open to meeting with the Iranian president. Significant events may occur in the not-so-distant future.

Subsequent Trends

Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy, published that Bitcoin's weekly closing price has, for the first time in 45 weeks, risen back above the 50-week moving average (50W MA). Thorn noted that historically, Bitcoin rising above the 50W MA is often seen as an important confirmation signal that the bear market bottom has formed. Currently, BTC has risen approximately 29% over the past 35 days.

Glassnode points out that the seven-day moving average of Bitcoin's SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) after physical adjustments has risen back above the breakeven line of 1.00. This indicates that most of the tokens sold on-chain are currently in profit, and the price has not immediately retreated, suggesting that buying pressure is strong enough to absorb selling pressure from profit-taking, a typical characteristic of a bull market. If this indicator continues to stay above 1, it reflects robust demand; if it falls back below 1, it means this support force is fading. The orange line in the accompanying chart represents the adjusted SOPR, the gray line represents BTC's price, the green area represents overall profitable sales, and the red area represents overall loss sales.

Well-known trader Doctor Profit stated that Bitcoin has broken through the 50-week moving average (MA50), currently located around $78,700. If it can maintain a close above this average by the end of the week, he will see it as a confirmation signal for a new round of bull market initiation. The current trend is similar to the structure from 2022 to 2023: Bitcoin re-established itself above the 50-week moving average after several weeks of being blocked and experiencing a "bear trap." He noted that historically, Bitcoin has dipped below and subsequently reclaimed the 50-week moving average seven times, with five of those instances leading to bull markets and the other two occasions in 2011 and 2020 forming false breakouts.

He indicated that Bitcoin is currently still in the range of $71,000 to $82,000, and a breakthrough above the $82,500 to $83,000 area would constitute stronger confirmation; reclaiming the 50-week moving average indicates that the aforementioned breakthrough may occur in the coming days. His personal strategy remains unchanged, continuing to hold spot assets and targeting $88,000 after overcoming the remaining resistance.