Risk assets caught a break this week that few were positioned for. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, its first hike since 2023, but the accompanying "dot plot" projected a median policy rate of just 4.1% through the end of 2027, implying only one more move rather than a sustained tightening cycle.

Crypto had extra ground to make up. The failure of the Clarity Act to clear a Senate procedural vote earlier in the week had already knocked Bitcoin below $75,000, and the relief rally that followed the Fed decision has been compounding through the week, with traders now eyeing a fresh run at $80,000 just days after the bill's defeat appeared to trigger panic selling.

Myriad: Where does Bitcoin go next? Click to make your prediction.

But it’s a new day, and today’s trading session tells a different story: Across the crypto market, over $445 million in short positions have been liquidated, with Bitcoin alone accounting for more than half of that at $230 million.

A short is a position in the derivatives market (contracts that track price, rather than buying and selling the asset itself) that bets on an asset’s price falling instead of rising (a long position).

A trader opens a short position by “borrowing” the asset, typically through a broker, and selling it at the current market price. If the price rises, the short seller loses money because they will eventually need to buy back the asset at a higher price to return it to the lender.

Short selling is considered particularly risky because potential losses are theoretically unlimited. In leveraged trading, traders typically post collateral to open a short position. If the price moves far enough against them, their collateral may be liquidated, meaning the position is automatically closed to cover the losses. When forced buying happens, it then pushes prices up further, leading to cascading liquidations in what’s known as a short squeeze.

Bitcoin is up 5.88% today, trading at $80,846 after opening at $76,355 and tagging an intraday high of $80,857 against a low of $76,236. That single-day move recovers a chunk of what's been a brutal year with Bitcoin still down nearly 20% from its previous all time high.

The technical picture backs up the strength of the move, though it's also warning that things have moved fast.

The Average Directional Index, or ADX, measures how strong a trend is regardless of direction. For Bitcoin, it currently sits at 40.6, comfortably above the 25 threshold traders use to confirm a real trend is underway, with the positive directional line (DI+) above the negative one (DI-), confirming buyers are in control. The 50-day exponential moving average, or EMA, is trading above the 200-day EMA, which reinforces that the broader structure has flipped bullish.

When the shorter term average crosses above the longer term one, it forms a pattern on the chart that traders refer to as a golden cross—a classic bullish signal. Bitcoin entered a golden cross last week on Saturday, and since then the gap inside the golden cross has been growing slowly every day.

The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, measures overbought and oversold conditions on a 0-100 scale, and that currently reads 63.3—solidly bullish and not yet in the danger zone above 70. But it’s climbing fast, which could signal caution for some traders.

Adding to the tension: the Squeeze Momentum Indicator has stayed "on" for 11 consecutive bars, meaning volatility has been compressed for nearly two weeks. Traders watch these squeezes because the longer they run, the more explosive the eventual release of volatility tends to be—and an 8.06% contraction reading suggests that release could still be ahead rather than behind.

Prices tend to either moon or crash after periods of heavy compression, which has led some analysis to consider the idea of a so-called Bart Simpson chart pattern waiting to happen. A Bart Simpson appears when there is a major green candlestick, followed by a compression pattern which ends up with a major red candlestick cancelling the gains.

Key levels to watch

Immediate resistance sits at $82,281, the top of the current Fibonacci leg and the level bulls need to close above to confirm the breakout. Below that, support layers in at $75,569 (the 61.8% retracement) and then more firmly at $68,858, the origin of the leg and the level that would need to break to put the bullish structure in real doubt.

With ADX confirming trend strength, the setup favors continuation over the near term, but leaves little room for another 6% day without a cooling-off period first.

The views and opinions expressed by the author are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice.

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