Yesterday's market conditions basically met previous expectations.
The key focus was on the resistance level of 76,500, which the price did indeed touch multiple times. Throughout the trading day, the market remained in a state of oscillation and consolidation most of the time, even when the Federal Reserve announced its rate decision at 2 AM and subsequently, Waller gave a speech, the market did not show any significant breakouts in either direction.
The current rate hike of 25 basis points was as expected, but what really deserves attention is the future guidance on the path of interest rates. The market was particularly concerned about whether there would be signals of consecutive rate hikes, but Waller did not provide a very clear direction during his speech, and the overall statement was rather vague.
There is one issue that needs special attention.
Recently, there have been some claims in the market about "the dot plot indicating further rate hikes," but no new dot plot was actually published this time. The related content circulating on the internet is more about speculation from certain forecasting institutions and is not the officially published dot plot.
Therefore, currently, these predictions cannot simply be treated as implemented policy signals.
If the market had truly formed a clear expectation for consecutive rate hikes, then theoretically, the price should show a more pronounced downward reaction. However, the market has not exhibited this kind of trend, which itself indicates that there remains significant disagreement within the market regarding the future path of interest rates.
Currently, the market's expectations for the next rate decision are still relatively balanced: part expects the rate to remain unchanged, while another part anticipates another rate hike of 25 basis points.
Consequently, what truly needs to be observed going forward is the market's repricing of these two expectations over the coming period.
If the rate ultimately remains unchanged, then the expectation for consecutive rate hikes will further cool, which would be a relatively favorable change for risk assets; conversely, if another rate hike of 25 basis points occurs, it would mean that the rate hike cycle could be reinforced, and market pressure might increase again.
1. Hourly Chart: Low-level Rebound Strengthens, 76,500 is the First Resistance
From the hourly chart, the current short-term structure has shown some improvement.
After the Federal Reserve announced its decision at 2 AM, the price briefly tested near 75,000 but did not break below the previous low around 74,900.
This indicates that there was significant buying support near 75,000.
Meanwhile, during the day yesterday, the price rebounded several times to around 76,200 but never effectively broke through. It was not until this morning that the price finally broke the 76,200 level, and after a retest, it did not fall back below that position.
Therefore, the hourly chart has started to gradually push upwards from the previous low-level consolidation.
However, the candlestick from the early morning still needs to be closely monitored.
At that time, the price peaked around 76,500 but ultimately closed significantly lower, failing to hold the upper high completely. This suggests that there remains noticeable pressure around 76,500.
Thus, while the hourly chart is biased towards a fluctuating rebound, it cannot simply be interpreted as a one-sided upward movement.
Today, the first thing to observe is:
Whether 76,500 can break through effectively and stabilize.
If it can stabilize, then there is room for a continued upward correction; if it cannot break through consistently, the market may still revert back to a range-bound structure. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
2. 4-Hour Chart: Decline Temporarily Stops, But Upper Pressure Remains Obvious
The 4-hour cycle needs to be observed from the high point of 82,800 on September 4.
Since 82,800, the price has shown a continual downtrend structure with lower highs. Although there have been several rebounds during this period, none has returned to the previous starting point of the declines.
However, there has been a relatively important change recently:
The lows have temporarily stopped moving lower.
Previously, every drop was accompanied by continuously refreshing lows, but this time the price gained support around 74,900—75,000 and did not expand the decline further.
This structure usually indicates that the speed of the decline is slowing, and the market shows certain signs of stabilization.
If the price can break 76,500 going forward, then further attention needs to be paid to the 77,700—77,800 area.
Thus, the focus of the 4-hour chart is currently on two positions:
First, 76,500;
Second, 77,700—77,800.
76,500 is the first checkpoint for whether the short-term rebound can further expand, while 77,700—77,800 is the important structural pressure area from before.
Until these two positions are effectively reclaimed, the current increase can still only be understood as a recovery rebound after the decline around 82,200. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
3. Daily Chart: False Breakdown Reclaimed, Short Term Repair Appears
The daily chart has shown a noteworthy change.
Previously, after falling below 76,000, the price dropped to around 74,900 but then reclaimed that level.
Yesterday, the daily close was at approximately 76,170, which is back above the critical area after the prior close below 76,000.
From a structural perspective, this can be understood as a fake breakdown recovery at the daily level.
The price has reclaimed near 76,000, indicating that there is indeed some buying interest beneath.
However, it needs to be emphasized:
The daily chart has only shown signs of bottoming and recovery, not a trend reversal.
There still exists considerable pressure above.
Especially since the price previously surged to around 79,500 on September 14 and then quickly retreated, indicating that there remains strong resistance and pressure region above 79,000.
Therefore, the current state of the daily chart is more suitable to be defined as:
A low-level rebound after a decline, rather than a trend re-strengthening.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
4. Moving Average Structure: Hourly First Improves, 4-Hour is Following Up
From the moving average and BBA structure, there is a noticeable rhythm difference across different cycles currently.
The hourly chart has continuously operated above the average price, with the short-term structure beginning to rise.
The 4-hour chart is currently repairing towards the middle band of the BBA, which is approximately around 76,300, hence the price is attempting to reclaim this average price area.
However, the daily chart remains comparatively weaker.
Currently, the 5-day and 7-day moving averages are still in the upper pressure area, with the 5-day moving average around 76,600, BBI around 77,100, and the 20-day moving average around 78,000.
This also explains why the hourly chart has seen rebounds, but the daily chart still appears to just be a repair during a pullback.
In other words, the current market cycle transmission order is relatively clear:
Hourly improves first → 4-hour follows up → Daily remains under pressure.
If the 4-hour can continue to reclaim the lost average price area, then there would be a foundation for further expanding the rebound. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
5. Open Interest: Low-level Shorts Begin to Change
From the 4-hour open interest perspective, around September 14, the price fluctuated around 76,000, and then rapidly rebounded to near 79,000, with a noticeable increase in contract open interest.
After reaching a high, the open interest began to decrease.
By September 15, the price experienced accelerated decline, but the open interest increased significantly instead.
This "price decline + increasing open interest" combination indicates that new positions were indeed entering the market at that time.
After the subsequent consolidation for a day, some positions began to exit.
Recently, as the price has risen again, the open interest has also increased, indicating that the market's long-short structure is undergoing subtle changes.
Some of the previously increased short positions have begun to exit, and some of those funds may be turning back to long positions.
However, the current overall open interest is still significantly lower than the levels near 82,000, hence from a broader cyclical perspective, the market remains in a long-short competition state and hasn't formed a very extreme one-sided position structure.
6. Bollinger Bands: Short-term Rebound is Expanding
The hourly Bollinger Bands previously underwent a significant contraction and have recently begun to expand upwards again.
The price has reclaimed above the average price, and the Bollinger Bands' opening has begun to point upwards, indicating that short-term volatility is transitioning from narrow low-level arrangement to upward expansion.
On the 4-hour chart, the price previously operated outside of the lower band but has now returned inside the Bollinger channel and is currently repairing towards the middle band.
The 4-hour middle band is around 76,800.
Thus, 76,800 is also a key position that needs to be observed during the short-term rebound process.
On the daily chart, the price previously tested the lower Bollinger band multiple times downwards but did not form an effective breakdown and subsequently reclaimed back inside the channel.
The current daily middle band is around 78,000.
Thus, the information provided by the Bollinger Bands remains quite clear:
Hourly upwards repair, 4-hour towards middle band repair, daily has returned inside the channel from the lower band area.
A short-term rebound is indeed in progress, but the daily remains below the middle band, so it cannot yet be defined as a full re-strengthening. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
7. MACD: Clear Improvement on Hourly, Daily Still Weak
In terms of MACD, after golden crossing on the hourly chart, momentum has continued to strengthen with prices showing higher closes, indicating that the short-term rebound momentum has improved compared to yesterday.
The 4-hour MACD remains in a death cross state, but the two fast and slow lines have begun to converge significantly, indicating that the previous downward momentum is weakening.
If a new golden cross can be formed subsequently, the basis for a 4-hour level rebound would be further strengthened.
However, it has not yet officially completed the golden cross and is still below the zero axis, so it can only be defined for now as:
Downward momentum weakening, rebound is repairing.
The daily MACD remains in a death cross structure; although recent downward momentum has eased, there has not been a clear signal of a trend reversal to the upside.
Therefore, the overall information conveyed by the MACD aligns with the previous moving averages, Bollinger Bands:
Short-term biased towards long, medium-term repairing, large cycle still weak.Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
8. TD Sequence: Hourly Showing Top 9, Note Pressure Near 76,800
In terms of TD sequences, the hourly chart has shown a top 9.
The emergence of top 9 does not mean that a reversal will occur immediately, as subsequent sequences like 10, 11, 12, 13 still need to be observed.
However, from a short-term perspective, the current price has undergone a rebound, so pressures near 76,800 need to be noted.
The previously bottoming sequences on the 2-hour and 3-hour charts have led to a rebound, and now that the hourly chart has shown a top 9, it indicates that the short-term rebound exists but is entering a position that requires attention to pressure.
The 4-hour, daily, and weekly charts currently have not shown new clear reversal signals.
Thus, the TD sequence has not altered the overall assessment but only reminds us not to overlook the pressure above in the short term. Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
9. Fibonacci: 76,500 and 77,700 are Key Divisions
From the 4-hour Fibonacci structure, we are still in the repair phase post the drop from 82,200.
Previous rebounds have not truly broken through the key retracement levels, hence the pressure above still exists.
Currently, three areas need to be emphasized:
76,500
77,000
77,500—77,800
Of which, 76,500 is the current first resistance, 77,000 is the integer level, while 77,700—77,800 is the more important retracement pressure area.
If 76,500 and 77,000 can be successively broken and stabilized, there is an opportunity to test 77,500—77,800 further.
Conversely, if 76,500 cannot break through for a while, the short-term rebound may easily revert back to a range-bound structure.
Summary
Considering the hourly, 4-hour, daily, weekly, and the moving averages, Bollinger Bands, MACD, TD sequence, and open interest, the market currently exhibits a relatively clear structure:
No new lows created at low levels, hourly improves first, 4-hour starts to repair, daily has reclaimed after breaking below 76,000.
Thus, today's short-term can be observed according to the fluctuating bias towards long, repairing rebound thought process.
However, it must be particularly emphasized that this is not a one-sided upward movement.
The larger cycle is still in the repair stage after the drop from 82,200, and the daily short-term moving averages are still pressing from above, so pressures are inevitable during the rebound process.
Today, attention should be focused on two positions:
First: 76,500
This is the most immediate short-term pressure, and also the first checkpoint to judge whether the rebound can further expand.
Second: 77,000
If 76,500 breaks through, then the 77,000 integer level will become the next important pressure.
Only after these two positions are gradually reclaimed does the price have the opportunity for further tests of:
77,500—77,800 area.
Therefore, today’s overall observation can follow the repairing rebound approach.
If by this afternoon, the price still cannot effectively break through 76,500, then the strength of the short-term rebound will need to be reassessed.
The core logic now is not to chase the highs but to observe whether the price can gradually reclaim the lost positions.
Daily sharing of real-time trading strategies, free position diagnosis, unwinding ideas and market practical insights, scan to follow the public account《Youliang Star Planet》, Join the community to receive strategies!
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