This week, the market is packed with significant events, including the voting results of the cryptocurrency regulatory bill and the approaching Federal Reserve interest rate meeting. Market sentiment is extremely cautious, and the tug-of-war between bulls and bears has entered a feverish stage. Yesterday, the cryptocurrency bill failed to pass, which impacted market sentiment, leading to a sharp decline in prices. A large bearish candle broke through the short-term support, with BTC dipping to around 74900 and ETH simultaneously falling to a low of about 2357, both approaching recent low support areas. Currently, prices are oscillating around 76000 and 2400 in a narrow range, with the market waiting for the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in the early morning. Short-term volatility is increasing, but the large-scale bull market structure has not been damaged, and the downside is limited, with a rebound imminent.
Looking back at the recent overall trend, BTC has consistently failed to stabilize effectively above the 80000 mark. Although it briefly surged to around 82200, it quickly retreated afterward, indicating insufficient sustainability in bullish momentum. Therefore, blindly chasing prices near the 80000 mark is obviously laborious and unrewarding. Similarly, the key support at 75000 has yet to be effectively broken. The market has repeatedly retraced to around 76000 and has shown rebounds, with strong support. Excessive pursuit of shorts near the 75000 support area is essentially no different from chasing after gains near 80000, both representing extreme positioning against the trend and carrying high risks.
On the daily chart, the price is already close to the lower Bollinger Band, and the downward space is severely compressed. To short at this position would require substantial selling pressure to continue, making it a poor cost-to-benefit ratio. On the 4-hour chart, after receiving support at the lower band, the price has stabilized, with KDJ and RSI both turning upward, while MACD bearish volume continues to decrease. Short-term rebound recovery momentum is accumulating. On the hourly chart, the price is currently undergoing a repair consolidation around the middle Bollinger Band, with a MACD golden cross upward and continuous bullish volume growth, indicating a clear signal for short-term rebound. In the evening, a bullish outlook is anticipated for a rebound in the upward trend.
The overall core logic remains unchanged: Until the key support at 75000 is broken, the bull market structure remains intact. Do not pursue the retreat, as the decline presents an opportunity for low buy orders. Recent repeated dips have been quickly reclaimed, indicating strong buying support below, and the bearish pressure is nearing exhaustion, with a rebound imminent.
Precise intraday operation strategy
BTC
Key core support below: 75000, 73000, allocate low buys in batches relying on the support range
Resistance for rebounds above: 76000—78000—80000
ETH
Key core support below: 2350, 2250, enter low buys in batches near support
Resistance for rebounds above: 2400—2500—2600
When trading, it is crucial to recognize the overall trend and not be intimidated by short-term bearish candles. The bull market pattern remains unchanged; every deep correction is an opportunity to enter rather than a moment for panic selling. The current price has already retested the key support area, leaving limited room for downside, with a rebound ready to start at any moment. Patiently wait for the correction to settle, and steadily position long orders supported by the support levels, controlling the position and maintaining stop losses, awaiting the realization of rebound profits. For more real-time market analysis, follow the public account: Zhongliang BN
Kind reminder: The above is merely a personal review and analysis of the market, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile; be sure to strictly control positions and maintain stop losses for rational trading.
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