2026-09-11 ｜ In-depth Interpretation ｜ Written by: Misty Rain

Before 20:30 tonight, the whole world held its breath; after 20:31, the market gave an answer within ten minutes. The U.S. August CPI was released: an annual rate of 3.4%, in line with expectations and unchanged from the previous value; the core CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest since April 2021. The shoe dropped, and the bad news was fully priced in—U.S. stock index futures made a V-shaped reversal, with Nasdaq futures turning from a drop of over 0.6% to a gain of 0.78%; BTC rebounded violently from around 76,500 to recover 77,800; ETH bounced back from a low of 2404 to 2503. But don't rush to celebrate just yet. This CPI carries a thorn: the monthly rate is at 0.4%, hitting the expected upper limit, and the core monthly rate at 0.3% exceeded expectations, setting a new high since May this year—annual rates are falling, but monthly rates are rising. Is this the beginning of bad news fully priced in, or just a false dawn? This article explains every segment of the CPI, the market's true reaction, and the upcoming script in detail.

01 Ten-minute Reversal: What Happened in the Market After the CPI Release

Let's restore those ten minutes. At 20:30, the data came out: the non-seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate for August was 3.4%, with expectations of 3.40% and a previous value of 3.40%, fully in line; the seasonally adjusted CPI monthly rate was 0.4%, with expectations of 0.40% and a previous value of 0.10%, hitting the expected upper limit. Then the core data followed: the core CPI annual rate fell to 2.4%, the lowest since April 2021; however, the core CPI monthly rate recorded 0.3%, above the market expectation of 0.2%, setting a new high since May this year.

The market's interpretation was almost simultaneous. By 20:38, U.S. stock index futures made a V-shaped reversal, with Nasdaq futures turning from a decline to an increase of 0.78%, having previously dropped over 0.6%. The cryptocurrency market reacted even more directly: BTC pulled back from around 76,500 to above 77,800, reclaiming the 77,000 mark; ETH bounced from a low of 2404 to 2503, with a rebound of nearly 4%.

Why did the "in line with expectations" data trigger such a big reaction? Because the market was not pricing in "cooling inflation," but rather the "shoe dropping." In the past 48 hours, PPI soared, the probability of interest rate hikes surged to 71.3%, and U.S. Treasury yields reached a 19-year high—bears had already fully priced in the worst scenario of "CPI explosion." The result was that the data did not explode; the annual rate remained flat, and the core annual rate even set a new low, meaning the worst-case scenario did not occur, causing fear to instantly release in the opposite direction. This is the typical form of "bad news fully priced in."

02 How to Read This CPI: Annual Rate is Decreasing, Monthly Rate is Increasing

But if you only see the four words "in line with expectations," you have missed the most critical signal of this data—it is actually divided.

Looking at the annual rate: 3.4% is unchanged from the previous value, indicating that the trend of declining inflation year-on-year has not been disrupted; the core annual rate of 2.4% set a more than three-year low, showing that the core inflation excluding food and energy is still in a complete downtrend channel. This is the market's confidence to rebound.

Looking at the monthly rate: the overall monthly rate of 0.4% is three times higher than the previous value of 0.1%, hitting the expected upper limit; the core monthly rate of 0.3% directly exceeded expectations and set a new high since May. What does this indicate? It indicates that the "tail inertia" of inflation is still present—the short-term month-on-month figures are rebounding, and the stickiness of service prices is more stubborn than expected. In other words: the long-term trend is cooling down, while the short-term inertia is heating up.

This "annual rate down, monthly rate up" divided form means what for the Federal Reserve? It does not provide evidence for an "immediate shift to easing," but neither has it deteriorated to the extent of "must continue to raise interest rates." Before the CPI announcement, the probability of interest rate hikes was at 69.4% (a raise of 25 basis points); this data is unlikely to quickly bring it back to zero, but it does provide breathing room for the "peak of interest rate hikes" argument. The real determination will come from the FOMC next week.

03 Interest Rate Hike Probability 69.4%: What is the Market Betting On, to be Revealed Next Week

Before the CPI was released, CME FedWatch data showed: the probability of the Federal Reserve keeping rates unchanged this month is 30.6%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike is 69.4%. In other words, the market had already priced in a "rate hike next week" with a 70% probability before the CPI was released.

What does this CPI mean for the 69.4%? In the short term, with the annual rate in line with expectations and the core annual rate hitting a new low, it suggests "not adding fuel to the fire," and there's a high probability that the 69.4% will slightly decline; however, the core monthly rate exceeding expectations is the thorn that prevents the interest hike probability from dropping too quickly. Therefore, the truly important event coming up is the FOMC meeting on September 15-16—besides the rate decision itself, the more important aspect is the simultaneously updated dot plot: it reveals whether this is "a one-off hike" or the beginning of a "continuous tightening." This is the key variable that determines whether this round of rebound is a "reversal" or a "correction."

There is another variable worth tracking: oil prices. This afternoon, international oil prices suddenly plummeted, with Brent crude oil dropping from $108 to around $102.73, down over 3% for the day, and WTI also falling nearly 3%. Oil prices are the "fuel" for inflation; just yesterday, they were adding fuel to the CPI's fire, and now they have gone cold—if oil prices continue to decline, the "inflation residual heat" of August will lack fuel, opening up a downward channel for interest hike probabilities, which is a tangible benefit for risk assets.

04 BTC Technical Perspective: What Did 77,800 Recover?

Looking at the K-line, BTC's current position is very revealing. On the one-hour chart, the current price of BTC is around 77,842, standing back above 77,000, re-entering the Bollinger Band channel (with the middle band at 77,998 and the lower band at 77,168)—this means the price has moved from a weak state of "running close to the lower band" back into the middle-lower part of the channel, confirming the short-term recovery is real.

But don't celebrate too early; there are multiple layers of resistance above: the 78,000 round number, the one-hour middle band at 77,998, the rebound high of 78,473, and above that is 79,744. In the past week, BTC has attempted to reach the 80,000 mark twice but failed; the 78,473-79,744 range has accumulated a large number of trapped positions—each level is a resistance. Below, we look at 76,410 (today's low), 76,270 (analysts' key level), 76,204 (period low), and 75,866 (the low of this decline), with the three-fold support at 76,000 passing tonight's test.

My judgment is: The CPI confirms the validity of the 76,000 support, but for BTC to make a reversal, it must first break through 78,500 with volume. Until a breakout occurs, the fluctuation between 77,000-78,500 is just "repair" rather than "reversal"; after breaking through, then we can talk about 80,000.

05 ETH: Bouncing Back from 2404 to 2503, Did the Weakest Lead the Rebound?

ETH's performance tonight is stronger than BTC's: it bounced back from a low of 2404 to 2503, with a rebound of nearly 4%, and the one-hour K-line directly broke through the middle band of the Bollinger Band at 2481, approaching the upper band at 2502. This trend is intriguing—just a few days ago, we were saying "ETH is weaker than BTC, and 2404 was only tested once," but it has now used a big bullish line to hide the "weak" label.

However, ETH also has strong resistance above: 2525 and 2536.88 (previous high) are two levels of pressure. Especially 2536.88, which is the starting point for this round of market increase from 1859 to 2566, has dense trapped positions above. Also, don't forget the ETH whale that shorted at 2461 (0x4487...c92d, short position of 24.16 million USD)—the current price of 2503 has already exceeded its cost by about 40 dollars, increasing the unrealized loss. The short position remains, indicating that there is still capital waiting above 2500; once the price touches the previous high of 2536, there will be a hard battle between bulls and bears.

My judgment is: This wave in ETH is a "rebound from overselling," and before breaking through the 2404-2536 range, don't rush to define it as a reversal. Stabilizing above 2500 is the first step, while breaking through 2536.88 with volume is the second step—only after both steps are completed is it truly strong.

06 The Upcoming Script: Three Things Determine the Direction

With the CPI question settled, the exam is not over yet. Three things will determine the direction next:

• FOMC and the Dot Plot (September 15-16). The interest rate decision will be released at 2:00 AM Beijing time on September 17. Whether the 69.4% probability of a rate hike declines or remains, and what paths the dot plot provides for the year will be the "final review";

• Oil Price Trends. Brent dropped from 108 to 102.7 today; if it continues to fall, the inflation fuel will be extinguished, expectations for rate hikes will cool down, and valuation pressures on risk assets will be directly alleviated;

• Whale's Short Positions. BTC whale with a short position of 56.92 million USD (opening price 78,475), and ETH whale with a short position of 24.16 million USD (opening price 2,461); after the CPI release, will they close their shorts for profit or continue to hold? Closing shorts equals confirming the rebound signal, while adding to shorts equals anticipating another drop.

Lastly, a candid statement. Tonight's reversal is essentially an emotional repair brought about by the absence of the worst-case scenario; it proves two things: one is that the triple support at 76,000 is real, and the bears' blitz did not break through; two is that the top probability for interest rate hikes is likely around the 69.4% mark, and the peak of the inflation narrative has passed. But emotional repair does not equate to a trend reversal—BTC is pressed by 78,500 and 80,000, while ETH is pressed by 2536.88, and the thorn of the core monthly rate at 0.3% has yet to be removed. Short-term optimism is fine, but don't forget an old saying: the data release is not the end; the FOMC is. Hold onto your chips, keep an eye on the dot plot, and wait for the final review. SafeX:Annxvvc

The above content is based on public market data and information logical inference, only for sharing within technical analysis frameworks, and does not constitute any investment advice. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile, and all price levels and scenarios are hypothetical; please make rational judgments and be aware of risks. SafeX:Annxvvc

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。