TradeXYZ launched a prediction market.

Written by: 0xFacai

Hyperliquid is never short of new narratives.

TradeXYZ today announced the launch of its self-deployed prediction market Events, with txyz as the deployment name. The first batch of contracts covers Up/Down for stocks, commodities, and Pre-IPO, with plans to add sports, political, and economic events later.

Traders can hold spot, borrow USDC, trade Pre-IPO perpetual contracts, and then hedge financial reports or bet on sports outcomes all in the same account using the event market.

Since the launch of Hyperliquid's prediction market, it has not stirred up much commotion, but the addition of TradeXYZ has given the community hope, as this team once nearly single-handedly brought Hyperliquid into traditional finance's view.

The launch of Events also officially marks the beginning of competition among HIP-4 deployers.

Different Market Operators

HIP-4 is an improvement proposal designed for prediction markets by Hyperliquid. A question that easily arises is: Hyperliquid has already deployed its own HIP-4 market, why can TradeXYZ deploy another set?

The answer lies in the division of responsibilities between the protocol layer and the market operation layer.

The market deployed by Hyperliquid itself is called the official market, while third-party markets like txyz share the same infrastructure, HyperCore, for order matching, balances, positions, and final on-chain settlements.

The difference lies in who operates the specific market.

HIP-4 has a fixed data template that specifies what text a prediction market can display, how the probabilities of events are named (such as Yes/No, Up/Down), and what keywords can be filled in. Within this boundary, third-party deployers can choose templates, set parameters and fees, publish methods for determining results, and decide which events to put up, when to stop trading, and which data sources to reference.

After the event results are out, the data source does not automatically trigger contract payouts. The deployer or an authorized settlement sub-deployer (a role specifically for settlement) needs to submit the settlement result to HyperCore, which verifies the authorization and writes the result on-chain.

Therefore, "third-party deployment" means that the specific market's terms, determinations, and settlement submissions are the responsibility of the third party, similar to the relationship between Hyperliquid's main site and various HIP-3 exchanges.

Hyperliquid manages the underlying trading rules, while deployers manage the market.

Mechanism

A binary event has two outcomes: Yes and No. Collateral can be split into two complementary "result tokens."

Assuming the price of Yes is 0.63, the price of No corresponds to 0.37. Buying Yes at 0.63 is economically equivalent to selling No at 0.37. HyperCore merges the liquidity from both sides into the same order book.

The settlement after expiration is also very straightforward. When settleFraction = 1, each Yes is redeemed for one quote asset, while No is zero; when settleFraction = 0, the result is the opposite. Some templates also allow settlement values between 0 and 1, enabling multiple candidate outcomes (such as who will win the US Open) to form a question, with each outcome having its own order book.

HIP-4 splits "settlement determination" into two steps. The market first calculates results according to public methods from declared data sources; then the deployer converts the results into settlement values used on-chain and submits them to HyperCore.

TradeXYZ's daily Up/Down market provides a specific example. According to the documentation, the system reads the last five closed one-minute candlesticks for settlement, calculates the high, low, and average close price for each candlestick, and then finds the arithmetic mean of the five results. This price must strictly be higher than the strike for Yes to win; if equal or the average price is lower, No wins.

This five-minute window reduces the ability of the last trade or instantaneous fluctuations to affect the settlement. The early sports market uses ESPN as the data source. How to handle game postponements, cancellations, ties, or result corrections has its specific templates and terms.

TradeXYZ and other HIP-4 deployers can integrate Events with spot, lending, and HIP-3 contracts into the same account, allowing traders to express both continuous price judgments and discrete results at a specific point in time simultaneously. This is the essential difference of HIP-4 compared to traditional prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi, even though these two traditional markets have also begun engaging in PerpDEX business, they still have a long way to go in terms of liquidity, user mentality, and trading experience compared to Hyperliquid.

Competitive Landscape

TradeXYZ's chips are the existing HIP-3 markets. Events can obtain continuous prices from these perpetual contracts, and can also bring event trades into the original user accounts. It chooses to cut in from Up/Down for stocks, commodities, and Pre-IPO, then expand to sports, political, and economic events, following a route that extends from financial trading to real outcomes.

According to statistics from Loris.tools, Events captured 15% of trading volume share on its first day online. The other two third-party deployers, Outcome and Skew, account for 75% and 3.5%, respectively.

Outcome is the earliest HIP-4 deployer, launched on August 29, and has occupied a first-mover advantage. Since its launch, Outcome has rolled out a total of $1 million in trading incentive activities, and current cumulative trading volume of Outcome exceeds $20 million.

Skew.trade has received 500,000 HYPE from Hyperion DeFi; this project was originally Sharp terminal, a Polymarket trading terminal, and later pivoted to HIP-4. The project is still in the Waitlist stage, and all its online markets are betting on price fluctuations.

As the variety and liquidity of markets gradually enrich, Hyperliquid is expected to secure a place in the prediction market. For Polymarket and Kalshi, when traders can complete betting and hedging in the same Hyperliquid account, keeping them will require more compelling reasons.