In September, Shanghai crude oil futures rose more than 20%, and Asia is bearing higher oil supply costs.

Since September, Shanghai crude oil futures have accumulated an increase of about 22%, equivalent to nearly 110 dollars per barrel when converted into U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil has also risen to around 100 dollars, but Shanghai crude has risen faster, and the price difference between the two has expanded to about 10 dollars per barrel.

Unlike most countries, the rise in China's crude oil prices is not directly caused by the closure of Hormuz but is due to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports after Iran closed Hormuz.

The previously relatively cheap Iranian crude oil has seen a significant reduction in supply due to the blockade, prompting Chinese refineries to seek other sources, including Russia, Brazil, Canada, and Africa. However, these crude oils already have other buyers, and as China increases its purchases, competition among buyers will intensify, leading to higher prices for alternative crude oil as well.

Therefore, the impact of Hormuz will extend to other oil-producing countries. Even if these countries are not involved in the war and do not transport through Hormuz, as more buyers concentrate on procurement, it will be difficult to maintain the original prices.

Transportation is the same. To avoid the high-risk areas of the Middle East, shipowners and refineries need to adjust their procurement locations and transportation arrangements, with some sources taking longer routes, increasing freight costs and extending waiting times for delivery. In the end, what refineries need to bear is a rise in crude oil prices, transportation costs, and delivery risks together.

My personal understanding is that the high premium of Shanghai crude compared to Brent reflects increasing market concerns about Asian supply. China can alleviate some pressure through inventory, but if the import gap relies on inventory to fill in the long term, it will still face issues of replenishment and procurement costs later on.

As long as there are no substantial improvements in transportation through Hormuz, Asia will still need to pay higher costs to find alternative supplies.

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