The night before Huoyuan Technology's IPO: Will the first day soar to a market value of 100 billion, and how much premium is Tencent's AI story worth?

CoinW Research Institute

On September 11 at 9:30 AM, Suiryan Technology will officially list on the Shanghai Stock Exchange's STAR Market, with stock code 688801. The issue price is 142.18 yuan, and after issuance, the total share capital will be approximately 430 million shares, corresponding to a market value of about 61.187 billion yuan. However, this number may quickly lose its reference significance. After 9:30, when Suiryan Technology officially opens, the public market will give the first answer: under the wave of domestic AI computing power, how much premium are investors actually willing to pay for Suiryan Technology? On the eve of the listing, our fundamental judgment on Suiryan remains unchanged. What is still being traded in the market is the scarce narrative of being a "Tencent-validated domestic cloud AI computing supplier." What truly deserves reevaluation is the A-share trading environment that Suiryan is about to face. On one hand, there is a subscription enthusiasm of over 6,000 times and an initial circulating market of only 4.16%; limited chips could quickly amplify the price elasticity on the first day. On the other hand, recent A-share trading has cooled, the technology sector has performed weakly, and leading domestic AI chip companies like Moore Threads have also experienced significant adjustments. Suiryan faces a market with stark contrasts tomorrow: the new stock itself is very hot, but the external market is not. This makes the initial pricing even more worth observing. Based on trading experience of newly listed stocks on the STAR Market, it is not uncommon for highly sought-after new stocks to open at 3 to 5 times the issue price. Calculating based on Suiryan's issue price of 142.18 yuan, the 3 to 5 times corresponds to about 426.54 yuan to 710.90 yuan. What is truly worth watching tomorrow is not just how much it rises at the open but where the price finally settles within this range and whether it can stabilize after a high opening. The price may surge quickly, but faced with the current cool market environment, whether there is enough capital to continue supporting at high prices needs our continuous observation.

1. In the last 48 hours, what has changed is the target price elasticity

In the last two days before the listing, the most notable change for Suiryan Technology is not new orders but chips. The initial effective subscription multiple for the online issuance reached about 6,109 times, with over 7.03 million households participating in the subscription. After adjustments, the winning rate is only 0.0246%. In the end, about 16,900 shares were abandoned online, corresponding to an amount of about 2.4 million yuan, which accounts for only about 0.04% of the issuance scale. From the subscription results, domestic AI computing power is still a high-interest direction for current A-share capital. But what matters more than the "6,000 times subscription" is how many stocks will actually be available for buying and selling tomorrow. Suiryan's public issuance is about 43.0352 million shares; due to strategic placement and certain restrictions on offline placement shares, the shares available for free trading initially are about 17.9003 million shares, accounting for only 4.16% of the total share capital after issuance. A large buying demand facing limited chips can easily push the price up rapidly; however, a low circulating supply is also a double-edged sword, as insufficient support at high levels can also lead to significant declines. In the past 48 hours, the company has not disclosed any new customers, significant orders, or product mass production progress that would change the long-term valuation logic, but the structure of chips after listing has become clearer. Therefore, what is being adjusted is the price elasticity on the first day, not the fundamental value of the company.

2. Behind the high valuation, what is the market actually betting on?

Calculating based on the issue price, Suiryan Technology's diluted static price-to-sales ratio for 2025 is about 61.80 times. Simply put, the market is currently willing to pay about 62 yuan of market value for every 1 yuan of revenue the company generates. Compared to the average price-to-sales ratio of 93.51 times for comparable companies in the issuance announcement, Suiryan's current valuation seems to still offer some space. But this does not mean that Suiryan is "cheap." Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, Muxi, Nvidia, and AMD all have significant differences in product capabilities, profit levels, customer structures, and market liquidity; thus, the average valuation can only serve as a reference and cannot directly translate into Suiryan's upside potential. What truly supports the 61.187 billion yuan valuation are several growth clues that are still being realized. The most important variable remains Tencent. In 2025, Suiryan's direct sales to Tencent and related AVAP model sales are expected to total about 830 million yuan, accounting for 83.79% of the annual revenue. In the short term, the market will not demand Suiryan to rapidly lower its revenue share from Tencent; the focus is more on how much of Tencent's continued increase in AI capital expenditure will eventually translate into real orders for Suiryan. Tencent is not only the most convincing customer validation but also the largest source of performance and concentration risk currently.

After order growth, we also need to see if it can really make money. The company expects revenue in the first three quarters of 2026 to reach 2.3 billion to 3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 325.78% to 455.36%, but during the same period, the net profit attributable to the parent company is still expected to lose 700 million to 860 million yuan. Revenue has already shown significant growth, and next, the market will shift its attention to gross margin, losses, and operating cash flow. After selling more, can profitability improve simultaneously? Another longer-term clue comes from product upgrades. Currently, over 80% of the revenue from the company's AI acceleration cards and modules comes from inference products. The fourth-generation training and inference integrated product L600 has already gone into chips recovery but has not yet entered large-scale mass production delivery. Suiryan has proven that the product can enter Tencent's real inference scenarios, and the next step is to prove it can enter technology-demanding large model training and large intelligent computing cluster markets. Therefore, the 61.187 billion yuan is not buying Suiryan's profit today but rather the expectation that Tencent's orders continue to grow, that revenue ultimately converts to profits, and that products move from inference to training.

3. On the first day, don't just look at "how much the highest rose"

Since there are no limits on price fluctuations for the first five trading days of newly listed shares on the STAR Market, and on the first day of listing, it can also become a margin financing target, Suiryan's first-day trading is likely to enter a high volatility state right from the opening. Industrial enthusiasm, scarce chips, and short-term funds may be concentrated in price within a day. But how high it spikes during the day does not represent how high the market ultimately accepts the valuation. Compared to the maximum spike, what is more worth observing is whether the price can maintain stability after spiking. If the stock price surges significantly high only to fall back down and closes clearly below the main trading area of the day, it indicates limited support at high levels; if, after sufficient turnover, the price can still stabilize in a densely traded area, it shows that new funds are willing to continue taking shares at a higher valuation. The performance of peers can also help us judge whose market it really is. If only Suiryan rises significantly, it is more in line with independent pricing caused by the scarcity of new stock chips; if Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Moore Threads, and Muxi also strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that funds are not only trading Suiryan but are also raising the risk preference for the entire domestic AI computing sector. Whether there are people supporting high prices and whether peers are rising together are more important than just seeing an exaggerated number during the day.

4. 61 billion yuan may just be a paper starting point; what is the secondary market paying for?

The issue price of 142.18 yuan corresponds to a market value of approximately 61.187 billion yuan, but this is closer to the subscription cost for investors who won the subscription and does not necessarily reflect the valuation that ordinary secondary market investors can buy at. Given the current high enthusiasm of the A-shares for domestic computing power and scarce tech IPOs, the price may significantly deviate from the issue price during the bidding phase, directly crossing the pricing range around 60 billion yuan. If the opening price reaches three times the issue price, i.e., 426.54 yuan, this represents about a 200% increase from the issue price. This corresponds to a company market value of about 183.56 billion yuan, with a static price-to-sales ratio of about 185.4 times for 2025. In other words, secondary market investors may not be facing the question of "is the 61 billion yuan Suiryan worth buying?" but rather "what does an AI chip company close to an 180 billion yuan market value, which is still in a loss period, need to deliver to support such a valuation?"

This price level implies expectations that far exceed Tencent's existing orders and revenue growth in 2026. The market will also factor in multiple hypotheses such as the continued expansion of Tencent's AI capital expenditure, Suiryan maintaining or increasing its supply share, the smooth mass production of L600, the opening of training business, and the gradual narrowing of losses. A low floating supply can rapidly push prices up, but it cannot fulfill these operational targets for the company. Therefore, the 61.187 billion yuan is the starting point determined by the issuance market, and the truly meaningful price anchor may not form until after the bidding phase and the first round of turnover. They are more like a valuation ruler used to assess how much of the future the market has already bought in advance. The closer the opening is to three times the issue price, the more likely the first-day performance will be dominated by scarce chips and market sentiment, leaving smaller room for error for subsequent orders, products, and profit data.

5. After the A-share closing, price discovery will continue

After Suiryan's listing, there is another easily overlooked price observation window. A-shares close at 15:00 daily, and trading will also pause on weekends and holidays, but news affecting AI chip companies won't go off "duty" with the market. News about overseas chip export policies, Tencent's AI capital expenditure, global AI chip companies like Nvidia, and even earnings reports and industry news about US tech stocks may occur during the A-share market's closed hours. When A-shares reopen the next day, this information is often reflected in prices all at once. CoinW plans to launch perpetual contracts related to Suiryan Technology's digital assets. If contracts continue trading during the A-share market's closed hours, it will provide an additional window to observe how the market digests this new information. For example, if the overseas AI chip sector suddenly surges or Tencent releases new AI investment signals, traders can observe whether Suiryan's related contracts change in sync and whether this change reflects adjustments in Suiryan's own expectations or an increase in risk preference for the entire AI sector. However, off-market prices are more suited as references for changes in market sentiment and expectations, rather than as forecasts for the next day's A-share opening price. Perpetual contracts are not Suiryan stocks, and holding a contract does not represent ownership of the company's equity or dividends. Especially when the A-share market is closed and lacks continuous spot price anchorage, contracts will also be affected by leverage, funding rates, liquidity, and long-short sentiment, leading short-term prices to potentially deviate more significantly. Therefore, when observing Suiryan's contract prices, it is best not to look at them in isolation. It is advisable to also pay attention to the trends of global AI chip assets like Nvidia and cloud vendors like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. If Suiryan contracts strengthen independently, the market may be trading on new expectations for the company itself; if global AI assets rise simultaneously, it is more likely an improvement in the risk preference for the entire AI sector. For investors, this cross-market comparison is more valuable than solo speculation on whether the next day's A-share will open high or low.

6. After listing, how to verify today's judgments?

On September 11, we first look at whether the capital is willing to genuinely take up the shares. The opening price tells us how high the market is willing to pay for scarce chips, while the average trading price, turnover rate, and closing position will determine whether that premium can hold. The next period from September 14 to 17 will still be within the first five trading days of listing, where there are no limits on price fluctuations. At this time, we can continue to observe whether the trading volume quickly declines, whether the price center stabilizes, and whether Suiryan continues to strengthen relative to the domestic computing power sector or gradually falls behind. Starting from September 18, daily price fluctuation limits will be restored to 20%. The truly important answers will have to wait for earnings reports and product deliveries. The company will disclose its third-quarter report no later than October 31. At that time, whether the revenue guidance of 2.3 billion to 3 billion yuan can be achieved, whether the loss range of 700 million to 860 million yuan shows improvement, whether gross margins and operating cash flow have improved, whether Tencent's procurement can continue, and whether L600 has started large-scale delivery will all become important bases for re-examining valuation. Additionally, A-shares will be closed during the Mid-Autumn Festival from September 25 to 27, and during the National Day from October 1 to 7. If contracts continue to trade, prices and funding rates may still change; the stock market closure does not mean that contract risks are paused. Tomorrow, the market's first question is a pricing question: how much premium are investors willing to pay for Suiryan's scarcity and Tencent's AI story? The subsequent orders, products, and earnings reports will answer the more important question of whether this premium can ultimately be retained.

This article is for market research and information analysis purposes only and does not constitute any investment or trading advice. Perpetual contracts carry high risks, and changes in leverage, funding rates, and liquidity can amplify losses.