Written by: Rita

Digital assets are transitioning from speculation to financial infrastructure. The market for stablecoins has surpassed $300 billion, and tokenized real-world assets are approaching $40 billion, with institutional participation accelerating. However, in a digital asset report released by Morgan Stanley on September 8, an intuitive judgment was made: adoption does not equal token appreciation, and economic benefits may primarily remain with existing financial institutions, while public protocols or token holders may not necessarily benefit. Integration is the baseline scenario, but value capture is another issue.

The core framework of the report separates technology adoption from value capture. Blockchain technology may be widely adopted, but the benefits could accrue to institutions that control distribution, custody, and customer relationships. Crypto-native companies are embracing regulation and can cooperate with or compete against existing institutions. Public protocols can only benefit when activities create lasting demand for tokens. For investors, the key is to differentiate whether technology is being adopted and who captures the economic benefits.

Adoption does not equal value capture

Morgan Stanley categorizes the prospects for digital assets by 2030 into four scenarios. Integration is the baseline scenario, with institutions mixing public and controlled tracks to address specific frictions. Private tracks represent a bear market scenario for public protocols, where value stays with existing institutions and their technology providers. Rapid adoption is a bull market scenario, where public networks capture a larger share of financial activity. The status quo represents a bear market scenario for digital assets as an infrastructure theme, with financial markets primarily modernizing through existing systems.

Regardless of the scenario, adoption and value capture are independent issues. Existing institutions maintain customer relationships, crypto-native companies capture specific infrastructure and service shares, and public protocols benefit when activities create lasting demand for tokens. Investors must assess token economics and competitive positioning, not just adoption rates.

Institutional adoption of a hybrid architecture

Finance is the clearest testing ground for blockchain. Currency, securities, and contracts have been digitized but operate across fragmented ledgers, institutions, and operational windows. Placing cash and assets on compatible programmable tracks can integrate settlement, collateral, compliance, and services. Broadridge's distributed ledger repo platform is projected to handle about $357 billion in repo transactions daily by June 2026. JPMorgan's Kinexys processes over $7 billion in payments daily.

Morgan Stanley believes that the strongest immediate opportunities include B2B payments and cash management, repos, and collateral management, with a potential end state of integration rather than complete decentralization. Financial institutions require identity, privacy, governance, compliance, and legal control, making fully permissionless finance unlikely to become core infrastructure. These controls can exist around public networks without necessarily replacing them. Private networks still hold appeal for confidentiality and counterparty control. A hybrid architecture is expected, with interoperability determining whether digital assets reduce fragmentation or recreate it.

Bitcoin is digital gold

Bitcoin differs from the broader digital asset theme. Its investment logic is primarily monetary: a scarce, non-sovereign store of value. Bitcoin's market cap is currently about 5% of the value of all above-ground gold. If acceptance expands, there is significant room for monetary premium. High government debt, ongoing deficits, and geopolitical fragmentation may support demand for non-sovereign stores of value, but Bitcoin must prove that long-term returns and diversification benefits can compensate investors for high volatility and severe drawdowns.

Morgan Stanley's baseline scenario for the next five years is that Bitcoin becomes a more mainstream satellite allocation, with retail allocations likely ranging from 1% to 4%, while institutional investment grows but is more constrained. Risks include quantum computing and a continued reliance on retail attention. Bitcoin's volatility has matched that of popular tech stocks, annualizing around 40%, with drawdown magnitudes similar to median individual stocks.

Stablecoin size is large but payment uses are limited

The supply of stablecoins exceeds $300 billion, still only accounting for about 0.25% of the global M2. Over the past year, the average monthly gross transfer volume was about $7.5 trillion, mostly reflecting crypto trading, CEX wallet inflows, and inorganic transactions. After applying filters for isolated payment applications, the average monthly payment volume in 2026 is expected to be only about $63 billion. Stablecoins have become an important financial infrastructure for the crypto market and on-chain liquidity, but a broader payment role is still far from developed.

Morgan Stanley's baseline scenario for digital currency is coexistence: stablecoins lead in activities on open public chains, tokenized deposits gain traction in bank-led institutional workflows, and central bank currencies anchor settlements in places where security and finality are paramount. Competition revolves around network coverage, interoperability, legal finality, liquidity, and the ability to convert each tool at face value into sovereign currency.

Tokenization grows fast but scales small

Tokenized real-world assets exceed $30 billion, about six times the level at the beginning of 2025, with cash-like interest rate products exceeding $17 billion. Tokenized money market funds provide yields for stablecoin issuers, protocol treasuries, and other crypto-native investors, and are starting to be used as collateral in DeFi. More recent institutional opportunities include collateral liquidity and balance sheet efficiency. The larger reward is that tokenization reduces the costs of issuance, management, reconciliation, and servicing.

Tokenization does not guarantee token appreciation. Economics can accrue to cryptocurrencies, crypto-native companies, or existing financial institutions. For cryptocurrencies, greater usage can only support value when tokens capture activities through fees, staking, collateral, or other functionalities, after accounting for issuance and selling pressure. Investors must separate adoption from value capture.

Value capture determines returns

Open protocols, regulated crypto-native challengers, and existing institutions compete on distribution, trading, issuing, settlement, custody, and connectivity. Existing institutions provide regulation, balance sheets, trusted client relationships, and distribution. Crypto-native companies provide faster iteration and infrastructure designed around programmable assets. Therefore, economics can accrue to cryptocurrencies, private company equities, or public stocks.

Morgan Stanley believes that a more enduring cryptocurrency market requires deeper professional participation. Institutional involvement through ETPs and other investment products (approximately $150 billion AUM) is expanding, spot custody is maturing, and most price formation is still driven by retail and crypto-native liquidity, leverage, and narratives. Professional capital is expected to gradually and selectively flow to assets with deep liquidity, trusted governance, lasting adoption, and demonstrable value capture.

For investors, the key is to distinguish between technology adoption and token value capture. The integration of digital assets is occurring, but economic benefits may not necessarily accrue to tokens.

Disclaimer

This article is a compilation and interpretation of the third-party brokerage research report (Morgan Stanley, September 8, 2026) by Chaoxiang Research, combined with publicly available market information. The ratings, target prices, earnings forecasts, and related judgments cited in this text are the opinions of the analysts from that brokerage and represent the stance of their organization, not the views of Chaoxiang Research, and do not constitute any investment advice.

Markets carry risks, and decisions must be independent. This text should not be used as a basis for buying or selling any securities.