Before the official release of this round of CPI data, Bitcoin's trend completely aligned with my previous predictions.

The overall situation is stuck in the range of 77000 to 81000, continuously oscillating within a narrow band, accumulating power without showing a clear unilateral trend.

I have reviewed the core on-chain data from the past two days; overall, the bullish and bearish signals are intertwined and balanced, but there are four very crucial detail changes that directly determine the next trend in the market. Today's content must be taken seriously.

First, the bottom big whale has quietly started buying, and the support around 77600 is very solid.

This Tuesday, after Bitcoin dropped to a low of 77603, the price quickly rebounded and did not continue to weaken. This is enough to show that there is strong buying pressure near 77600 actively supporting and absorbing chips.

More importantly, a whale address that has been silent for a full 8 months has recently re-entered the market loudly. At an average price of 78955, it bought 179.8 Bitcoins with significant capital, and currently holds 7432 million USDC in idle funds, ready to continue increasing its position.

So there is no need to doubt that the buying support below 77000 is not empty; it is real institutional funds protecting the market.

Second, the selling pressure from large holders is extremely limited, and the market does not face systemic selling risks.

After the small rise in this round of market, we have not seen a continuous transfer of large amounts of Bitcoin to exchanges. Friends familiar with on-chain data know that large holders only move chips to exchanges when they want to cash out.

The current transfer volume remains low, indicating that the main force is not distributing chips on a large scale. The potential for market crashes and selling pressure is very limited, and the downward space for the market has long been locked down.

Third, ETF funds continue to flow back, and the buying structure in the market remains healthy.

This Tuesday, Bitcoin spot ETFs once again welcomed net inflows, with a net inflow exceeding 46.64 million dollars in a single day. This marks the third consecutive day of positive inflows, with a total net inflow over the past three days exceeding 1 billion dollars.

Among them, GBTC saw a single-day net inflow exceeding 65.5 million, becoming the main support, while even the steadily performing BlackRock IBIT steadily inflowed 10.65 million dollars.

Although the overall net assets of ETFs have slightly decreased to 99.5 billion dollars, they remain at historically high levels, and the underlying logic of market money support has not weakened at all.

Fourth, the on-chain profit structure is clear, and the upper pressure is clearly visible.

Currently, more than 71% of Bitcoin chips are in a profitable state, which means that once the price rises above 82000 again, there will be more profit-taking options than in May this year.

Therefore, the pressure in the range of 82000 to 83000 is not just a psychological barrier; it is a strong resistance level created by a substantial accumulation of profit-taking sell pressure.

At the same time, the SOPR on-chain profit and loss indicator has stood firmly above the break-even line for three consecutive weeks since August 19, setting a record for the longest period since 2026.

However, there is a hidden risk here: while the market continues to warm up, trading volume continuously lacks presence, which causes a clear gap between the on-chain profit structure and actual market buying pressure. Confirmation of the subsequent market direction will still require patience to wait for signals.

Finally, I would like to share my thoughts:

The current market logic is actually very clear: whales are buying at low levels, ETF funds are continuously flowing in, and large holders are not selling, with support layers forming below.

But even with such favorable factors, the market still cannot stabilize above 80000.

To put it simply, there is strong support below and heavy selling pressure above, both bulls and bears are in an extreme tug-of-war, and the market is in a state of complete balance.

The CPI data that everyone is waiting for is the core catalyst to break the current stalemate and guide the direction of the subsequent market.

You don’t need to blindly guess bullish or bearish; just patiently wait for the data to be released, wait for the market to break and choose a direction, and follow the trend accordingly.

This circle has been operational for its seventh year. From the earliest Knowledge Planet, then to Mustard Circle, and now to the community, I do not want to set boundaries for myself. The content of the circle will continue to expand, covering the US market; if one day the Bitcoin market comes to an end and new opportunities arise, we will strive to be among the first to capture them. Investment must have a global perspective and diversify to be more composed.

⚠️ This is a personal opinion sharing and does not constitute any investment advice. The circle is for paying members; interested friends can add my personal WeChat: hanson1658. (Note: Only plan to add friends after joining the circle)

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