Author: Flow Brief by Alea Research

Translation: Deep Tide TechFlow

Deep Tide Guide: In August, Ethereum surged 32%, Bitcoin rose 25%, and gold increased by 9.4%, but this round of market conditions is far from "blindly buying and making a profit." In the same tide, Ondo fell 11%, and small-cap stocks in the U.S. barely moved. For investors, the real question is not "has it risen," but who is swimming naked after the tide goes out.

Cross-Asset Market

Cryptocurrencies and gold led the way in August, while U.S. stocks showed significant divergence. BTC rose 25.04%, gold increased by 9.43%, while U.S. small-cap stocks measured by the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) only slightly increased by 0.94%. The rise in crypto assets is not limited to just BTC, and the rise in gold did not accompany a significant drop in U.S. Treasury yields.

August returns of major asset classes: BTC, Ethereum, gold, WTI crude oil, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100.

Crypto assets generally rose, while U.S. stocks showed a divergence in individual performance. Most tokens rose, while stock performance was driven by their respective earnings reports and news.

Gold rose while U.S. Treasury yields remained stable. The 10-year yield closed at 4.75%, unchanged from the beginning of the month.

The token economics became more transparent. Ether.fi began recording buybacks, while Ethena proposed a buyback plan based on a supply threshold.

Commodity markets were not limited to metals. Cocoa, sugar, and wheat all saw gains exceeding gold.

The July PCE price index rose 0.2% month-on-month, but overall inflation still reached 3.7%, with core inflation at 3.3%. Real consumer spending remained flat. The BEA's data reflects a situation of weak demand coexisting with stubborn inflation.

Daily yield trends of U.S. Treasury bonds in August covering the 2-year, 10-year, and 30-year.

The 2-year yield rose 6 basis points to 4.34%, while the 10-year yield closed at the beginning of the month level. This aligns with the Federal Reserve's emphasis on price stability on August 28.

August Dollar Index trends.

The Dollar Index fell only by 0.37%. The rise in gold far exceeded what the fluctuation in the exchange rate could explain. September's inflation data will help determine whether short-term rates can follow the dollar lower.

ETH rose 32.57%, ahead of BTC's 25.04%. The growth was not limited to these two leading assets: the median gain for qualifying tokens was 16.76%.

August crypto market map: 40 largest qualified tokens, scaled by market capitalization square root.

While the general trend was upward, there were still notable exceptions. Pump.fun rose 115.09%, Ethena rose 86.16%, and Zcash rose 85.40%; Ondo fell 11.23%. Even in a rising market, selecting coins remains important.

August CoinGecko price path: BTC, Ethereum, Ethena, Pump.fun, Zcash, and Ondo.

Ethena's Buyback Threshold

Ethena's fee proposal on August 27 specifies that after the foundation extracts 5% of gross income, 95% of net income will be used for buybacks in the first tier. The activation threshold is a USDe supply reaching $7.5 billion, while the current supply disclosed in the proposal is $4.07 billion, meaning about an 84% increase in supply is needed. Read Alea's "ENA's Claims on Ethena Still Have Premises."

Ether.fi's Product Expansion

Ether.fi's product expansion in August broadened customer relationships, and ETHFI rose 36.95%. The revenue after deducting rewards and service costs will show how much value this expansion has actually retained. Read Alea's "ETHFI's Buyback Vote."

Ethena's 90-day daily reference price trend places August's rise within a longer cycle.

The closing price of ENA in August was about 12.1% lower than the closing price on August 27 UTC, despite a significant overall increase in the month. The growth in USDe supply and the executed buybacks will determine the progress in achieving the proposal goals.

Pons rose 1,119%, with a closing price about 12 times the starting price.

U.S. Stocks: A Bull Market for a Few

The S&P 500 rose 2.62%, while the Nasdaq 100 rose 4.18%, far exceeding IWM. Among the 49 stocks in the research pool, Coinbase, Robinhood, and Freeport-McMoRan led with increases of 28.62%, 21.08%, and 20.93%, respectively. GE, UnitedHealth, and Walmart lagged, decreasing by 6.77%, 6.03%, and 5.69%, respectively.

August's return distribution of the 49 U.S. stock research pool, equal area square diagram.

Nvidia provided performance support for AI demand: quarterly revenue reached $96.2 billion, a year-on-year increase of 106%, with next quarter guidance at $108 billion. This median guidance implies a further 12.2% growth quarter-on-quarter. NVDA rose 9.98%, while the semiconductor ETF SOXX only rose 1.22%. The earnings report supports Nvidia's growth narrative, but the overall return of the sector shows that the growth is not uniformly distributed. Read Alea's "When AI Trading Becomes Memory Trading."

Commodities

Gold rose 9.43%, and silver rose 14.98%, but this is only part of the market conditions. Out of 28 near-month futures contracts, 23 rose. Cocoa rose 23.22%, sugar rose 21.49%, and Chicago wheat rose 18.34%; orange juice fell 23.04%, lean hogs fell 15.35%, and feeder cattle fell 7.64%. The costs of food and industrial inputs showed divergence.

August map of 28 near-month commodity futures contracts.

WTI crude oil only rose 1.29%. The inflation pressures in commodities in August primarily came from certain food and metal contracts, with crude oil contributing far less than the former. The delivery date and contract rollovers can also affect near-month futures prices.

Methodology: Comparing spot prices from the close on July 31 to the close on August 31. CoinGecko reference price range is from August 1 to September 1, UTC 00:00, covering August's UTC closing prices. Crypto assets exclude pegged assets and tokenized funds, securities, and commodities, requiring complete price data at two points and a trading volume threshold of $1 million on the closing day. The stock breadth covers a pool of 49 research stocks. Futures use daily closing prices from providers. Data sources: CoinGecko, Yahoo Finance, U.S. Treasury.